Russian Premier League predictions

Friday 20 November — 1 match

• 16:30 UTC FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

• 10:00 UTC FC Orenburg vs Baltika — model 35% / 33% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.03 · 3.13. Tight game · draw in reach
• 12:15 UTC Akron vs Fakel — model 51% / 26% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.85 · 4.35. Edge: Akron
• 14:30 UTC Rubin vs Zenit — model 24% / 27% / 49%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.70 · 2.04. One-sided: Zenit
• 16:45 UTC CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat — model 51% / 26% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.85 · 4.35. Edge: CSKA Moscow

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

• 11:00 UTC Dynamo vs FC Krasnodar — model 47% / 25% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 4.00 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 13:30 UTC Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow — model 22% / 25% / 53%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.55 · 4.00 · 1.89. One-sided: Spartak Moscow
• 16:00 UTC Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: Lokomotiv

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

• 11:00 UTC Rubin vs Akron — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 13:30 UTC CSKA Moscow vs Zenit — model 32% / 26% / 42%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 3.85 · 2.38. Edge: Zenit
• 16:00 UTC Baltika vs Akhmat — model 45% / 30% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.33 · 4.00. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 4 matches

• 10:00 UTC FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva — model 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.70 · 4.35. Edge: FC Orenburg
• 12:15 UTC FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar — model 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.70 · 2.56. Edge: FC Krasnodar
• 14:30 UTC Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo — model 29% / 26% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 3.85 · 2.22. Edge: Dynamo
• 16:45 UTC Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Makhachkala — model 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.00 · 4.00. Edge: Lokomotiv

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 5 of 8 matches. Across all 89 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 45% of results.

• Lokomotiv 0–1 Rubin — the model said 45% / 28% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Fakel 1–2 Dynamo — the model said 17% / 25% / 58%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Akhmat 1–0 Rodina Moskva — the model said 49% / 25% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• FC Krasnodar 4–2 CSKA Moscow — the model said 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FC Orenburg — the model said 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Spartak Moscow 2–1 Akron — the model said 66% / 20% / 14%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Zenit 2–2 FC Rostov — the model said 59% / 24% / 17%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
• Baltika 0–1 Dinamo Makhachkala — the model said 55% / 26% / 19%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Russian Premier League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Zenit — 31 pts from 14 (10W 1D 3L, goals 32–15)
• 2. Dynamo — 31 pts from 14 (10W 1D 3L, goals 23–13)
• 3. Spartak Moscow — 29 pts from 14 (9W 2D 3L, goals 27–11)
• 4. FC Krasnodar — 26 pts from 14 (7W 5D 2L, goals 25–18)
• 5. CSKA Moscow — 26 pts from 14 (7W 5D 2L, goals 23–16)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 128 matches left: Zenit 42.9%, Dynamo 28.5%, Spartak Moscow 20.8%.

Leading scorers: M. Glushenkov (Zenit) 10 goals, A. Sobolev (Zenit) 10 goals, K. Tyukavin (Dynamo) 7 goals.