Rubin
vs
Akron
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Rubin 1–0 Akron
The model makes it 44% Rubin, 28% draw, 28% Akron — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rubin 1.48, Akron 1.06.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Rubin's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Akron's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- Rubin are 8th on 18 points from 14 games; Akron are 14th on 12 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- Rubin have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Lokomotiv.
- Akron have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Spartak Moscow.
- Last 6 meetings: Rubin 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Akron 1–2 Rubin.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rubin vs Akron
Has the model earned this number?
Rubin at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rubin vs Akron
Rubin
Premier League
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv6 November 2026
- W1-0Fakel31 October 2026
- L0-2Krylia Sovetov24 October 2026
- L0-4away to Spartak Moscow18 October 2026
- L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026
Akron
Premier League
- L1-2away to Spartak Moscow8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Baltika1 November 2026
- W3-1Dynamo24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Rostov9 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rubin had two goals or fewer.
- Akron conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Akron failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rubin | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 | Akron | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rubin
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 17% today
Akron
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 54% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Rubin vs Akron
- 1 August 2026Akron 1–2 RubinPremier League
- 18 April 2026Rubin 1–1 AkronPremier League
- 20 September 2025Akron 2–2 RubinPremier League
- 22 November 2024Rubin 3–0 AkronPremier League
- 23 October 2024Akron 0–1 RubinCup
- 19 August 2024Akron 1–2 RubinPremier League
Leading scorers: Rubin and Akron
Rubin
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Akron
GoalsAssists
- Gilson Benchimol42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rubin the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Rubin against 1.06 for Akron. Rubin's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.23 for Akron.
How the model reaches 44% for Rubin to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rubin to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Rubin's ratings change nothing and Akron's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Rubin's ratings41%±0
- Akron's ratings44%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rubin at home · Akron away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Rubin 14, Akron 14.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rubin
- at FC Krasnodar6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- at Dynamo27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- at Akhmat6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs FC Rostov13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Akron
- vs FC Orenburg5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Akhmat27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Spartak Moscow6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.