30 July 2026, 17:00 UTC

Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Minsk 0-1 Neftchi Baku.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dinamo Minsk, 26% draw, 30% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Neftchi Baku 2–4 Dinamo Minsk (22 Jul) →

Dinamo Minsk went through 4–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Minsk at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Minsk0%Draw5%Neftchi Baku95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Breno Almeida
Artem Sokolovskiy
24'
30'
Andreaw Gravillon
58'
🔁L. Tuptaout: B. Sambou
🔁A. Sokolovskiyout: A. Zhechko
66'
🔁K. Vardanyanout: L. Gweth
66'
74'
🔁Breno Almeidaout: E. Safarov
74'
🔁I. Mathewout: S. D'Almeida
🔁G. Gurbanout: M. Shvetsov
83'
🔁M. Djimetout: G. Alykulov
83'
86'
🔁E. Mahmudovout: Igor Ribeiro
Leonard Chatelin Gweth
88'
90+4'
Falaye Sacko
🔁E. Malashevichout: R. Begunov
90+1'

Line-ups

Dinamo Minsk 4-3-3
  • 1I. ShimakovichG
  • 44G. GurbanD
  • 12A. IvanovD
  • 26V. KalininD
  • 25A. ToureD
  • 8A. SelyavaM
  • 78A. SokolovskiyM
  • 42F. AbdullahiM
  • 30M. DjimetF
  • 10K. VardanyanF
  • 7E. MalashevichM
Substitutes
  • 21D. RadkevichG
  • 3M. ShvetsovD
  • 5D. Dushevskiy
  • 9A. LutskovichF
  • 11G. AlykulovM
  • 13V. PolozM
  • 23A. ZhechkoM
  • 24A. VakulichD
  • 27M. AleksandrovD
Coach: Aleksandr Shagoyko
Neftchi Baku 4-3-3
  • 1E. BalayevG
  • 77F. SackoD
  • 55A. GravillonD
  • 17M. Khachayev
  • 3R. AbbasovM
  • 20Gustavo KlismahnM
  • 18I. MathewM
  • 8E. MahmudovM
  • 33Breno AlmeidaM
  • 29L. TuptaF
  • 11I. FarajM
Substitutes
  • 13K. PiricG
  • 4E. CamalovM
  • 5Igor RibeiroD
  • 7E. Safarov
  • 14E. BadalovD
  • 19A. SalyanskiyF
  • 82M. MammadliD
  • 6S. D'AlmeidaM
  • 24M. SeckD
Coach: Yuri Vernidub

Form going into Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku

Dinamo Minsk

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2away to Neftchi Baku22 July 2026

Neftchi Baku

All competitions we cover

  • L2-4Dinamo Minsk22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Dinamo Minsk and Neftchi Baku in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3Dinamo MinskPremier League2819455123+2861
1Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa117312611+1524

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Belarus Premier League · Premyer Liqa

Head-to-head: Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku

  • 22 July 2026Neftchi Baku 2–4 Dinamo MinskUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Neftchi Baku won 1–0 at Dinamo Minsk. The model had leaned towards a win for Dinamo Minsk at 44% and given a win for Neftchi Baku 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Breno Almeida 12' for Neftchi Baku. Sent off: Falaye Sacko (Neftchi Baku) 90+4'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.