New York City FC vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% New York City FC, 23% draw, 22% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New York City FC at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York City FC vs Toronto FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49Matthew FreeseG
- 24Tayvon GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6James SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 32Jonathan ShoreM
- 26Agustin OjedaM
- 7Nicolás FernándezM
- 8Andrés PereaM
- 9Bénie TraoréM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 17Hannes WolfF
- 88Malachi JonesF
- 29Máximo CarrizoM
- 35Mitja IleničD
- 99Seymour Garfield-ReidF
- 30Tomás RomeroG
- 23Max MurrayD
- 27Cooper FlaxM
- 15Kevin PierreM
- 1Luka GavranG
- 19Kobe FranklinD
- 25Walker ZimmermanD
- 38Jackson GilmanD
- 22Richie LaryeaD
- 21Jonathan OsorioM
- 6Niklas DorschM
- 7Theo CorbeanuM
- 10Đorđe MihailovićM
- 20Dániel SallóiM
- 9Josh SargentF
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 29Deandre KerrF
- 11Derrick EtienneF
- 78Malik HenryM
- 23William YarbroughG
- 13Benjamin KuscevicD
- 44Raheem EdwardsD
- 17Emilio AristizábalF
- 99Jules-Anthony VilsaintF
Form going into New York City FC vs Toronto FC
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026
Toronto FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to DC United25 July 2026
- D0-0away to New England Revolution22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | New York City FC | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 42 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 52 | 67 | -15 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Toronto FC
- 3 July 2025New York City FC 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 26 April 2025Toronto FC 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2024Toronto FC 2–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2024New York City FC 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2023New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 26 July 2023New York City FC 5–0 Toronto FCLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Toronto FC
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau166
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New York City FC and Toronto FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 55% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Mercau (penalty) 8' for New York City FC, D. Mihailovic 45+6' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 2.08–1.00.