Dundalk vs Shelbourne Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Dundalk 2-3 Shelbourne.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Dundalk, 29% draw, 33% Shelbourne — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Dundalk at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundalk vs Shelbourne
Line-ups
- 1E. MinogueG
- 31J. WilsonD
- 4M. AnimasahunD
- 44T. GrivostiD
- 3B. BurnsD
- 18K. BuckleyM
- 6A. DervinM
- 15T. ClarkeM
- 11R. TeahanM
- 7D. HorganM
- 9C. DillonF
- 13P. CherrieG
- 14Norman GarbettM
- 10Leonardo GaxhaF
- 8H. GroomeM
- 27D. McDaidM
- 12L. MulliganD
- 17S. TraceyM
- 16E. VasseninD
- 5H. WarrenD
- 19E. BeachG
- 25M. MbengD
- 16O. CaseyD
- 4K. LedwidgeD
- 18James Barry NorrisD
- 17D. KellyM
- 23K. McInroyM
- 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
- 27E. CaffreyM
- 22S. MooreF
- 11M. OdubekoF
- 55James RocheD
- 44Daniel RingF
- 36W. JarvisM
- 56J. WunaF
- 20R. FreitasF
- 14A. CooteM
- 9S. BoydF
- 15S. BoneD
- 31C. WalshG
Form going into Dundalk vs Shelbourne
Dundalk
All competitions we cover
- L0-4St Patrick's Athletic14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
Shelbourne
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Drogheda United14 September 2026
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
- D2-2Ajax13 August 2026
- L1-3away to Ajax6 August 2026
What these results say
- Shelbourne did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dundalk | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 59 | -4 | 45 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 52 | 50 | +2 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundalk vs Shelbourne
- 3 July 2026Shelbourne 2–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 1 May 2026Dundalk 1–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 3 April 2026Shelbourne 2–3 DundalkPremier Division
- 20 January 2026Shelbourne 2–1 DundalkFriendlies Clubs
- 30 August 2024Dundalk 0–1 ShelbournePremier Division
Leading scorers: Dundalk and Shelbourne
Dundalk
GoalsAssists
- D. Horgan1210
- G. Arubi73
Shelbourne
GoalsAssists
- H. Wood85
- D. Kelly84
- J. Martin82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shelbourne won 3–2 at Dundalk. The model had leaned towards a win for Dundalk at 38% and given a win for Shelbourne 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: ronan teahan 12' for Dundalk, Sean Moore 39' for Shelbourne, Declan McDaid 71' for Dundalk, Sean Boyd 80' for Shelbourne, Sean Boyd 90' for Shelbourne. Sent off: shane tracey (Dundalk) 85'.
How the call on Dundalk v Shelbourne has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Dundalk's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Dundalk win38%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Shelbourne win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Dundalk's most recent league matches and Shelbourne's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.