FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Nordsjaelland 2-0 Aarhus.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Nordsjaelland, 27% draw, 27% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Nordsjaelland at 46% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus
Line-ups
- 13A. HansenG
- 2P. AnkersenD
- 25V. NelssonD
- 4Noah MarkmannD
- 23R. NorheimM
- 18Justin JanssenM
- 6M. BrinkM
- 5J. LähteenmäkiM
- 10P. AmoakoF
- 11A. LindF
- 14Ibrahim AdelF
- 29V. BerthelsenM
- 9O. SolbakkenF
- 47M. HeydeM
- 42M. TukaD
- 28M. WalkerD
- 37Lamine SadioM
- 35V. RutkjaerD
- 22C. ErikssonG
- 40H. Boe RasmussenM
- 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
- 25C. RöslerD
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 19E. KahlD
- 29R. CarstensenM
- 4M. KnudsenM
- 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 8S. JørgensenM
- 18C. McCowattM
- 13J. SerraF
- 26J. AndersenD
- 23M. AndersonM
- 31T. BechF
- 28J. BogereF
- 33Luka CalløD
- 1J. HansenG
- 16J. JønssonM
- 14T. MølgaardD
- 7M. SolbakkenM
Form going into FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus
FC Nordsjaelland
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
- W3-1Brondby30 August 2026
- W3-0away to Sonderjyske23 August 2026
Aarhus
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
- L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
- D2-2Odense23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Nordsjaelland | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 11 | Aarhus | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus
- 13 September 2026FC Nordsjaelland 2–0 AarhusSuperliga
- 23 April 2026FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 10 April 2026Aarhus 1–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 24 October 2025Aarhus 1–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 28 September 2025FC Nordsjaelland 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 16 May 2025FC Nordsjaelland 2–0 AarhusSuperliga
Leading scorers: FC Nordsjaelland and Aarhus
FC Nordsjaelland
- H. Boe Rasmussen3 goals1 assists
Aarhus
- J. Serra3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.