Excelsior vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Excelsior 1-2 Utrecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Excelsior, 29% draw, 27% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Excelsior at 44% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Excelsior vs Utrecht
Line-ups
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 12K. BosD
- 3R. MeissenM
- 7A. SlitiM
- 8I. YegoianM
- 20L. HartjesM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
- 19D. GardenF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 23Y. FineyM
- 28N. GroenF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 15S. JanssenD
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 1V. BarkasG
- 2S. HoremansD
- 3M. DiddenD
- 5N. PanagiotouD
- 23N. VesterlundM
- 20D. de WitM
- 34D. van den BergM
- 92A. ZagréM
- 11Ángel AlarcónF
- 9Artem StepanovF
- 15A. BlakeF
- 39N. AmrabatF
- 10Y. CathlineF
- 33K. GadellaaG
- 32P. KloosterboerD
- 18J. MedićD
- 6G. OfferhausD
- 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
- 22S. PadtG
- 17S. van DuijnF
Form going into Excelsior vs Utrecht
Excelsior
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
- W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
- W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
- L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026
Utrecht
- D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
- L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
- L1-4AZ Alkmaar15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Utrecht
- 13 September 2026Excelsior 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 26 April 2026Excelsior 5–0 UtrechtEredivisie
- 24 August 2025Utrecht 4–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 27 January 2024Excelsior 1–1 UtrechtEredivisie
- 12 November 2023Utrecht 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 25 January 2023Utrecht 1–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers: Excelsior and Utrecht
Excelsior
- D. Garden3 goals
Utrecht
- Artem Stepanov5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.