Danish Superliga predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Aarhus vs Lyngby — model 57% / 23% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.75 · 4.35 · 5.00. Edge: Aarhus

Sunday 22 November — 4 matches

13:00 UTC AC Horsens vs Silkeborg — model 52% / 23% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.35 · 4.00. Edge: AC Horsens
13:00 UTC Viborg vs Randers FC — model 60% / 23% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.67 · 4.35 · 5.88. One-sided: Viborg
15:00 UTC Sonderjyske vs Odense — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
17:00 UTC FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: FC Copenhagen

Monday 23 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Brondby vs FC Midtjylland — model 30% / 25% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 4.00 · 2.22. Edge: FC Midtjylland

Friday 27 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Sonderjyske vs Brondby — model 30% / 25% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 4.00 · 2.22. Edge: Brondby

Sunday 29 November — 4 matches

13:00 UTC Randers FC vs AC Horsens — model 28% / 25% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 4.00 · 2.13. Edge: AC Horsens
13:00 UTC Lyngby vs Viborg — model 27% / 25% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 4.00 · 2.08. Edge: Viborg
15:00 UTC FC Copenhagen vs FC Midtjylland — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03. Evenly matched
17:00 UTC Silkeborg vs Aarhus — model 27% / 26% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 3.85 · 2.13. Edge: Aarhus

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 5 of 6 matches. Across all 84 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 56% of results.

Silkeborg 1–0 Lyngby — the model said 41% / 23% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Odense 1–2 Viborg — the model said 34% / 28% / 38%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
FC Copenhagen 1–0 Brondby — the model said 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Aarhus 2–0 AC Horsens — the model said 44% / 25% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Randers FC 1–6 FC Nordsjaelland — the model said 26% / 28% / 46%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
FC Midtjylland 2–2 Sonderjyske — the model said 71% / 17% / 12%, most likely 3-1: result missed.

Danish Superliga so far

Top of the table

1. FC Copenhagen — 32 pts from 14 (10W 2D 2L, goals 29–12)
2. FC Midtjylland — 32 pts from 14 (9W 5D 0L, goals 29–17)
3. Viborg — 26 pts from 14 (8W 2D 4L, goals 22–13)
4. FC Nordsjaelland — 23 pts from 14 (6W 5D 3L, goals 26–18)
5. Brondby — 22 pts from 14 (7W 1D 6L, goals 23–21)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 48 matches left: FC Copenhagen 48.6%, FC Midtjylland 48.2%, Viborg 2.5%.

Leading scorers: O. Ross (Silkeborg) 7 goals, M. Elyounoussi (FC Copenhagen) 7 goals, F. Etim (FC Midtjylland) 6 goals.