FK Jablonec
vs
Pardubice
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Jablonec 1–2 Pardubice
The model makes it 35% FK Jablonec, 28% draw, 37% Pardubice — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FK Jablonec 1.35, Pardubice 1.39.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: FK Jablonec and Pardubice are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FK Jablonec's rating is built from 49 Czech Liga matches and Pardubice's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.
Key facts
- FK Jablonec are 7th on 21 points from 14 games; Pardubice are 12th on 17 points from 14 games — Czech Liga.
- FK Jablonec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Mlada Boleslav.
- Pardubice have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Teplice.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Jablonec 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Pardubice 0–2 FK Jablonec.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Jablonec vs Pardubice
Has the model earned this number?
Pardubice at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Pardubice
FK Jablonec
Czech Liga
- D0-0Mlada Boleslav8 November 2026
- L0-5Slavia Praha31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hradec Králové25 October 2026
- L2-3Plzen18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026
Pardubice
Czech Liga
- W4-1away to Teplice8 November 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Plzen25 October 2026
- W3-0Zlin17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026
What these results say
- Pardubice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pardubice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pardubice had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Pardubice
- 2 August 2026Pardubice 0–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 15 February 2026Pardubice 0–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 14 September 2025FK Jablonec 3–2 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 13 April 2025FK Jablonec 1–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
- 9 November 2024Pardubice 2–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 16 May 2024FK Jablonec 3–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FK Jablonec (7th, with Pardubice 12th), while our numbers lean to Pardubice. Pardubice rate 0.85 in attack and 1.22 in defence, FK Jablonec 0.73 and 1.28 (lower is better in defence), so Pardubice have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pardubice the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FK Jablonec against 1.39 for Pardubice. FK Jablonec's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.22 for Pardubice.
How the model reaches 37% for Pardubice to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pardubice to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, FK Jablonec's ratings add 2 points and Pardubice's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- FK Jablonec's ratings34%+2
- Pardubice's ratings37%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FK Jablonec at home · Pardubice away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FK JablonecPardubice
FK Jablonec are 7th after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Pardubice are 12th after 14 (between 10th and 15th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: FK Jablonec 14, Pardubice 14.
FK Jablonec score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Pardubice have let in 8 there.
Pardubice score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); FK Jablonec have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FK Jablonec
- at Slovácko5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 38%
- at Trabzonspor10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 12%
- vs Bohemians 190513 Dec · Czech Ligawin 36%
Pardubice
- vs Slavia Praha4 Dec · Czech Ligawin 18%
- at Mlada Boleslav12 Dec · Czech Ligawin 29%
- vs Sigma Olomouc30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 42%
- at Artis6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.