Regular Season - 16 · 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Teplice vs Slovan Liberec Czech Liga prediction

AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice

Our model says: Teplice 0–1 Slovan Liberec

The model makes it 33% Teplice, 31% draw, 36% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Teplice 1.07, Slovan Liberec 1.13.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: Teplice and Slovan Liberec are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Teplice's rating is built from 49 Czech Liga matches and Slovan Liberec's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.

Key facts

  • Teplice are 6th on 21 points from 14 games; Slovan Liberec are 2nd on 26 points from 13 games — Czech Liga.
  • Teplice have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Pardubice.
  • Slovan Liberec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bohemians 1905.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 October 2026, ended Slovan Liberec 1–0 Teplice.

More Czech Liga predictions

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec

45%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Teplice win Draw Slovan Liberec win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 1–011%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Teplice first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Slovan Liberec at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Teplice vs Slovan Liberec

Teplice

Czech Liga

  • L1-4Pardubice8 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Slovácko31 October 2026
  • D0-0Artis24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Mlada Boleslav17 October 2026
  • D1-1Sigma Olomouc11 October 2026

Slovan Liberec

Czech Liga

  • W1-0Bohemians 19057 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Pardubice31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sigma Olomouc17 October 2026
  • L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026

What these results say

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Teplice146352222021
2Slovan Liberec13823168+826

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Teplice

Chance to finish in the top ten · 78% today

Win 84%
Draw 78%
Defeat 72%

From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec

  • 27 October 2026Slovan Liberec 1–0 TepliceCup
  • 1 August 2026Slovan Liberec 0–1 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 15 March 2026Slovan Liberec 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 18 October 2025Teplice 1–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 8 December 2024Slovan Liberec 3–0 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 10 August 2024Teplice 2–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Teplice and Slovan Liberec

Teplice

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pulkrab43
  • John Auta40

Slovan Liberec

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mašek40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Teplice a 0% chance of the title and Slovan Liberec 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Teplice Slovan Liberec
0.81 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
1.26 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.87
1.07 Model expected goals (this match) 1.13

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Slovan Liberec the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Teplice against 1.13 for Slovan Liberec. Teplice's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.87 for Slovan Liberec.

Teplice carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.77 for Slovan Liberec. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for Slovan Liberec to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovan Liberec to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Teplice's ratings add 3 points and Slovan Liberec's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage32%−4
  3. Both sides at this match's level31%−1
  4. Teplice's ratings34%+3
  5. Slovan Liberec's ratings36%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

TepliceSlovan Liberec
14Matches13
6W 3D 5LRecord8W 2D 3L
22 1.6 per gameGoals scored16 1.2 per game
22 1.6 per gameGoals conceded8 0.6 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets6 of 13
4 of 14Failed to score4 of 13
–Penalties scored1 of 1
29 2.1 per gameYellow cards29 2.2 per game
1Red cards2
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Teplice at home · Slovan Liberec away

8Played7
2W 3D 3LRecord5W 1D 1L
12–15Goals for – against9–4
2 of 8Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

TepliceSlovan Liberec

151016 Teplice, match 1, 25 July 2026: vs Bohemians 1905 3-1 → 2ndTeplice, match 2, 1 August 2026: at Slovan Liberec 0-1 → 1stTeplice, match 3, 8 August 2026: vs Plzen 5-5 → 1stTeplice, match 4, 15 August 2026: at Sparta Praha 4-1 → 6thTeplice, match 5, 23 August 2026: vs Zbrojovka Brno 0-2 → 9thTeplice, match 6, 30 August 2026: vs FK Jablonec 2-0 → 6thTeplice, match 7, 6 September 2026: at Zlin 1-3 → 5thTeplice, match 8, 13 September 2026: vs Slavia Praha 0-2 → 8thTeplice, match 9, 20 September 2026: at Hradec Králové 0-2 → 5thTeplice, match 10, 11 October 2026: vs Sigma Olomouc 1-1 → 6thTeplice, match 11, 17 October 2026: at Mlada Boleslav 1-0 → 7thTeplice, match 12, 24 October 2026: vs Artis 0-0 → 7thTeplice, match 13, 31 October 2026: at Slovácko 1-3 → 6thTeplice, match 14, 8 November 2026: vs Pardubice 1-4 → 6thSlovan Liberec, match 1, 25 July 2026: at Plzen 1-3 → 1stSlovan Liberec, match 2, 1 August 2026: vs Teplice 0-1 → 5thSlovan Liberec, match 3, 7 August 2026: at Zbrojovka Brno 0-1 → 4thSlovan Liberec, match 4, 16 August 2026: vs Slavia Praha 1-1 → 4thSlovan Liberec, match 5, 22 August 2026: at Zlin 0-1 → 3rdSlovan Liberec, match 6, 30 August 2026: vs Hradec Králové 2-0 → 1stSlovan Liberec, match 7, 6 September 2026: at FK Jablonec 1-2 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 8, 12 September 2026: vs Mlada Boleslav 3-0 → 1stSlovan Liberec, match 9, 19 September 2026: at Artis 0-0 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 10, 11 October 2026: vs Slovácko 0-2 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 11, 17 October 2026: at Sigma Olomouc 1-0 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 12, 31 October 2026: at Pardubice 1-2 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 13, 7 November 2026: vs Bohemians 1905 1-0 → 2nd 12468101214 151016 Teplice, match 1, 25 July 2026: vs Bohemians 1905 3-1 → 2ndTeplice, match 2, 1 August 2026: at Slovan Liberec 0-1 → 1stTeplice, match 3, 8 August 2026: vs Plzen 5-5 → 1stTeplice, match 4, 15 August 2026: at Sparta Praha 4-1 → 6thTeplice, match 5, 23 August 2026: vs Zbrojovka Brno 0-2 → 9thTeplice, match 6, 30 August 2026: vs FK Jablonec 2-0 → 6thTeplice, match 7, 6 September 2026: at Zlin 1-3 → 5thTeplice, match 8, 13 September 2026: vs Slavia Praha 0-2 → 8thTeplice, match 9, 20 September 2026: at Hradec Králové 0-2 → 5thTeplice, match 10, 11 October 2026: vs Sigma Olomouc 1-1 → 6thTeplice, match 11, 17 October 2026: at Mlada Boleslav 1-0 → 7thTeplice, match 12, 24 October 2026: vs Artis 0-0 → 7thTeplice, match 13, 31 October 2026: at Slovácko 1-3 → 6thTeplice, match 14, 8 November 2026: vs Pardubice 1-4 → 6thSlovan Liberec, match 1, 25 July 2026: at Plzen 1-3 → 1stSlovan Liberec, match 2, 1 August 2026: vs Teplice 0-1 → 5thSlovan Liberec, match 3, 7 August 2026: at Zbrojovka Brno 0-1 → 4thSlovan Liberec, match 4, 16 August 2026: vs Slavia Praha 1-1 → 4thSlovan Liberec, match 5, 22 August 2026: at Zlin 0-1 → 3rdSlovan Liberec, match 6, 30 August 2026: vs Hradec Králové 2-0 → 1stSlovan Liberec, match 7, 6 September 2026: at FK Jablonec 1-2 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 8, 12 September 2026: vs Mlada Boleslav 3-0 → 1stSlovan Liberec, match 9, 19 September 2026: at Artis 0-0 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 10, 11 October 2026: vs Slovácko 0-2 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 11, 17 October 2026: at Sigma Olomouc 1-0 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 12, 31 October 2026: at Pardubice 1-2 → 2ndSlovan Liberec, match 13, 7 November 2026: vs Bohemians 1905 1-0 → 2nd 12468101214

Teplice are 6th after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Slovan Liberec are 2nd after 13 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Czech Liga matches this season: Teplice 14, Slovan Liberec 13.

Teplice scored 352626
Slovan Liberec conceded 310221
Slovan Liberec scored 011363
Teplice conceded 535232

Slovan Liberec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Teplice have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Teplice

  • at Plzen6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 20%
  • vs Sparta Praha14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 23%
  • at Zbrojovka Brno30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 39%
  • at FK Jablonec6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 35%

Slovan Liberec

  • vs Zbrojovka Brno5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 51%
  • at Slavia Praha13 Dec · Czech Ligawin 15%
  • vs Zlin30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 56%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.