Zlin
vs
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Zlin 0–2 Sparta Praha
The model makes it 14% Zlin, 21% draw, 65% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 7.14, 4.76 and 1.54.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Zlin 0.78, Sparta Praha 2.25.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Sparta Praha are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Zlin's rating is built from 49 Czech Liga matches and Sparta Praha's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.
Key facts
- Zlin are bottom on 3 points from 14 games; Sparta Praha are 4th on 24 points from 14 games — Czech Liga.
- Zlin have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Slovácko.
- Sparta Praha are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Plzen.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Praha 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended Sparta Praha 3–1 Zlin.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zlin vs Sparta Praha
Has the model earned this number?
Sparta Praha at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zlin vs Sparta Praha
Zlin
Czech Liga
- L0-1Slovácko7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Artis31 October 2026
- D1-1Sigma Olomouc24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Pardubice17 October 2026
- L0-1Slavia Praha9 October 2026
Sparta Praha
Czech Liga
- D1-1away to Plzen8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19051 November 2026
- W5-1Slovácko25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Baník Ostrava18 October 2026
- W2-0Pardubice11 October 2026
What these results say
- Zlin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zlin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Praha went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Zlin | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 3 |
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zlin vs Sparta Praha
- 31 July 2026Sparta Praha 3–1 ZlinCzech Liga
- 8 February 2026Zlin 0–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 31 August 2025Sparta Praha 3–1 ZlinCzech Liga
- 26 November 2023Sparta Praha 2–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 29 July 2023Zlin 0–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 25 February 2023Zlin 2–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Zlin and Sparta Praha
Zlin
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- J. Braut Brunes62
- J. Mercado51
- J. Alcócer41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zlin a 0% chance of the title and Sparta Praha 2.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Zlin against 2.25 for Sparta Praha. Zlin's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.84 for Sparta Praha.
How the model reaches 65% for Sparta Praha to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sparta Praha to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Zlin's ratings add 16 points and Sparta Praha's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Zlin's ratings48%+16
- Sparta Praha's ratings65%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Zlin at home · Sparta Praha away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ZlinSparta Praha
Zlin are 16th after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 14th and 16th so far); Sparta Praha are 4th after 14 (between 2nd and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Zlin 14, Sparta Praha 14.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zlin
- at Bohemians 19056 Dec · Czech Ligawin 21%
- vs Plzen14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 17%
- at Slovan Liberec30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 17%
- vs Zbrojovka Brno6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 34%
Sparta Praha
- vs Mlada Boleslav5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 54%
- at Red Bull Salzburg10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 38%
- at Teplice14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.