Fluminense vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Fluminense, 25% draw, 50% Bahia — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bahia at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Bahia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnácioD
- 22Juan Pablo FreytesD
- 6RenêD
- 16NonatoM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17Agustín CanobbioM
- 32Luciano AcostaM
- 30Yeferson SoteldoM
- 7HulkF
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 35HérculesM
- 11Jefferson SavarinoF
- 14Germán CanoF
- 27Marcelo PitalugaG
- 23GugaD
- 25AlissonM
- 94OtávioM
- 1RonaldoG
- 31Román GómezD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 21Santiago Ramos MingoD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 5Nicolás AcevedoM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 7AdemirM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 16Erick PulgaM
- 9Alejo VélizF
- 15Michel AraújoM
- 10Everton RibeiroM
- 63David MartinsM
- 57Kauê FurquimM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 17Guido HerreraG
- 43Luiz GustavoD
- 4KanuD
- 67Wendel PassosM
Form going into Fluminense vs Bahia
Fluminense
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Gremio26 July 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026
Bahia
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Bahia
- 12 July 2026Fluminense 2–0 BahiaFriendlies Clubs
- 5 February 2026Bahia 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 7 December 2025Fluminense 2–0 BahiaSerie A
- 10 September 2025Fluminense 2–0 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Bahia 1–0 FluminenseCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Bahia
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fluminense and Bahia drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Bahia at 50% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 2.25–0.43.