Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 0-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Corinthians, 24% draw, 42% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.94, 4.17 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Paranaense at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 20Pedro MilansD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 14RanieleD
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 19André CarrilloM
- 29AllanM
- 61DieguinhoM
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 52Zakaria LabyadM
- 77Jesse LingardF
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 7Breno BidonM
- 8Rodrigo GarroM
- 49André LuizM
- 51KauêG
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 55Iago MachadoD
- 23SantosG
- 29Gastón BenavídezD
- 22Carlos TeránD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JádsonM
- 27Juan PortillaM
- 26ClaudinhoM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 7Steven MendozaF
- 9Kevin ViverosF
- 6Leonardo DerikD
- 53DuduM
- 8João CruzM
- 19Jorge RivaldoF
- 33Juan Felipe AguirreD
- 42Matheus SoaresG
- 3LéoD
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 11IsaacF
Form going into Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
Atletico Paranaense
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
- 19 February 2026Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 11 September 2025Corinthians 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
- 28 August 2025Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 17 October 2024Corinthians 5–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 23 June 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 1 November 2023Corinthians 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Paranaense at 42% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.35–0.68.