Germany vs Greece UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Germany 0-1 Greece.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Germany, 29% draw, 23% Greece — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Germany at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Germany vs Greece
Line-ups
- 21A. NübelG
- 14J. VagnomanD
- 2Y. BisseckD
- 4J. TahD
- 18N. BrownD
- 8F. NmechaM
- 6J. KimmichM
- 19K. AdeyemiM
- 15B. ContéM
- 9K. SchadeM
- 23Y. EbnoutalibF
- 10J. BurkardtF
- 11N. AmiriM
- 12F. DahmenG
- 5Y. EngelhardtM
- 7C. FührichM
- 20S. GnabryF
- 3M. RosenfelderD
- 16A. StachM
- 13P. TreuD
- 12K. TzolakisG
- 2G. VagiannidisD
- 4K. MavropanosD
- 5P. RetsosD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 15T. AndroutsosM
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 10C. TzolisM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 16A. TettehF
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 17M. SaliakasD
- 3A. NtoiD
- 23C. MouzakitisM
- 18G. MichailidisD
- 7G. MasourasF
- 13C. MandasG
- 22G. KiriakopoulosD
- 6D. KourbelisM
Form going into Germany vs Greece
Germany
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1away to Netherlands24 September 2026
Greece
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Germany | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Germany vs Greece
- 7 June 2024Germany 2–1 GreeceFriendlies
- 22 June 2012Germany 4–2 GreeceEuro Championship
The result against the call
Greece won 1–0 at Germany. The model had leaned towards a win for Germany at 48% and given a win for Greece 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Dimitrios Kourbelis 74' for Greece.