Incheon United
vs
Gangwon FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Incheon United 1–0 Gangwon FC
The model makes it 38% Incheon United, 31% draw, 31% Gangwon FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Incheon United 1.16, Gangwon FC 0.98.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Incheon United's rating is built from 35 K League 1 matches and Gangwon FC's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 674 matches.
Key facts
- Incheon United are bottom on 49 points from 35 games; Gangwon FC are 4th on 51 points from 35 games — K League 1, Championship Group.
- Incheon United have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Daejeon Citizen.
- Gangwon FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Jeonbuk Motors.
- Last 6 meetings: Gangwon FC 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 October 2026, ended Gangwon FC 1–1 Incheon United.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Incheon United vs Gangwon FC
Has the model earned this number?
Incheon United at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Incheon United vs Gangwon FC
Incheon United
K League 1
- L0-2away to Daejeon Citizen8 November 2026
- W1-0away to FC Seoul1 November 2026
- W3-1Jeju United FC24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gangwon FC18 October 2026
- W3-0Pohang Steelers9 October 2026
Gangwon FC
K League 1
- W3-2Jeonbuk Motors8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC1 November 2026
- D1-1away to FC Seoul24 October 2026
- D1-1Incheon United18 October 2026
- W2-0Bucheon FC 19959 October 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gangwon FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gangwon FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Gangwon FC.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Incheon United | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 37 | +7 | 49 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 35 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Gangwon FC
- 18 October 2026Gangwon FC 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 27 September 2026Gangwon FC 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 2 May 2026Incheon United 0–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 6 October 2024Incheon United 1–3 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 30 June 2024Incheon United 0–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 21 April 2024Gangwon FC 4–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Gangwon FC
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša111
- M. Ferrier51
Gangwon FC
GoalsAssists
- Mo Jae-Hyeon42
- A. Halaihal40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gangwon FC (fourth, with Incheon United sixth), while our numbers lean to Incheon United. Incheon United rate 0.66 in attack and 1.18 in defence, Gangwon FC 0.66 and 1.24 (lower is better in defence), so Incheon United have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Incheon United against 0.98 for Gangwon FC. Incheon United's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.24 for Gangwon FC.
How the model reaches 38% for Incheon United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Incheon United to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Incheon United's ratings add 1 point and Gangwon FC's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Both sides at this match's level37%−2
- Incheon United's ratings38%+1
- Gangwon FC's ratings38%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Incheon United at home · Gangwon FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Incheon United 35, Gangwon FC 35.
Incheon United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (16 goals); Gangwon FC have let in 9 there.
Gangwon FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Incheon United have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Incheon United
- at Jeonbuk Motors6 Dec · K League 1win 32%
Gangwon FC
- vs FC Seoul6 Dec · K League 1win 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.