Portland Timbers
vs
FC Dallas
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Portland Timbers 2–1 FC Dallas
The model makes it 42% Portland Timbers, 24% draw, 34% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.89, FC Dallas 1.65.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Portland Timbers's rating is built from 72 MLS matches and FC Dallas's from 70, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- Portland Timbers are 7th on 46 points from 34 games; FC Dallas are 2nd on 58 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Portland Timbers are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Austin.
- FC Dallas have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Colorado Rapids.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Dallas 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
Has the model earned this number?
Portland Timbers at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer
- W2-0away to Austin8 November 2026
- W3-1Houston Dynamo2 November 2026
- W3-2away to St. Louis City29 October 2026
- W3-2Charlotte25 October 2026
- D0-0Colorado Rapids18 October 2026
FC Dallas
Major League Soccer
- W3-1Colorado Rapids8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City31 October 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew29 October 2026
- W3-0San Jose Earthquakes25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo18 October 2026
What these results say
- Portland Timbers went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Portland Timbers | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 46 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 62 | 51 | +11 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
- 13 September 2026FC Dallas 2–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 23 July 2026Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025FC Dallas 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2024FC Dallas 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and FC Dallas
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 62 league goals as a side.
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa225
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Dallas (second, with Portland Timbers seventh), while our numbers lean to Portland Timbers. Portland Timbers rate 0.75 in attack and 1.53 in defence, FC Dallas 0.74 and 1.37 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Portland Timbers against 1.65 for FC Dallas. Portland Timbers's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.37 for FC Dallas.
How the model reaches 42% for Portland Timbers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Portland Timbers to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Portland Timbers's ratings take away 2 points and FC Dallas's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Portland Timbers's ratings43%−2
- FC Dallas's ratings42%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Portland Timbers at home · FC Dallas away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Portland Timbers 34, FC Dallas 34.
Portland Timbers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); FC Dallas have let in 7 there.
FC Dallas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); Portland Timbers have let in 12 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.