K League 1 predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

05:00 UTC Jeonbuk Motors vs FC Seoul — model 34% / 28% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.57 · 2.63. Evenly matched
05:00 UTC Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03. Evenly matched
07:30 UTC Gangwon FC vs Daejeon Citizen — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
07:30 UTC Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC — model 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.57 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

05:00 UTC Gwangju FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 — model 40% / 26% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.85 · 2.94. Evenly matched
05:00 UTC Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC — model 35% / 31% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.23 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 28 November — 4 matches

05:00 UTC FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC — model 34% / 29% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.45 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
05:00 UTC FC Seoul vs Daejeon Citizen — model 42% / 26% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.85 · 3.13. Evenly matched
07:30 UTC Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Gimcheon Sangmu FC
07:30 UTC Pohang Steelers vs Gwangju FC — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

05:00 UTC Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors — model 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.70 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
07:30 UTC Incheon United vs Gangwon FC — model 38% / 31% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.23 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 6 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 79 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 35% of results.

Jeju United FC 1–1 Gwangju FC — the model said 51% / 25% / 24%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–0 FC Anyang — the model said 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Daejeon Citizen 2–0 Incheon United — the model said 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
FC Seoul 1–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC — the model said 51% / 24% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Gangwon FC 3–2 Jeonbuk Motors — the model said 35% / 31% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Bucheon FC 1995 2–2 Pohang Steelers — the model said 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1: result missed.

K League 1 so far

Top of the table

1. FC Seoul — 67 pts from 35 (20W 7D 8L, goals 62–32)
2. Ulsan Hyundai FC — 57 pts from 35 (17W 6D 12L, goals 56–49)
3. Daejeon Citizen — 53 pts from 35 (14W 11D 10L, goals 55–41)
4. Gangwon FC — 51 pts from 35 (12W 15D 8L, goals 44–34)
5. Jeonbuk Motors — 49 pts from 35 (12W 13D 10L, goals 45–36)

The model's chance of finishing first in the Championship Group, from 10,000 simulations of the 9 matches left: FC Seoul over 99.9%.

Leading scorers: Yago Cariello (Ulsan Hyundai FC) 13 goals, S. Mugoša (Incheon United) 11 goals, Lee Dong-Gyeong (Ulsan Hyundai FC) 10 goals.