Regular Season - 14 · 27 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka Premier League prediction

Arena Livyi Bereg, Kyiv

Our model says: Livyi Bereh 0–1 Kolos Kovalivka

The model makes it 32% Livyi Bereh, 31% draw, 37% Kolos Kovalivka — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Livyi Bereh 1.04, Kolos Kovalivka 1.17.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Edge to Kolos Kovalivka: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Livyi Bereh's rating is built from 13 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Kolos Kovalivka's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Livyi Bereh are 12th on 9 points from 11 games; Kolos Kovalivka are 9th on 12 points from 10 games — Premier League.
  • Livyi Bereh have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Bukovyna.
  • Kolos Kovalivka have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bukovyna.
  • Last 4 meetings: Kolos Kovalivka 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2025, ended Livyi Bereh 0–2 Kolos Kovalivka.

More Ukrainian Premier League predictions

All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka

45%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Livyi Bereh win Draw Kolos Kovalivka win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 1–011%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Livyi Bereh first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Kolos Kovalivka at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka

Livyi Bereh

Premier League

  • L0-3Bukovyna14 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Obolon'-Brovar6 November 2026
  • D0-0LNZ Cherkasy24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Kharkiv19 October 2026
  • L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026

Kolos Kovalivka

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Bukovyna8 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Veres Rivne23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk17 October 2026
  • W3-1Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Kudrivka20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Livyi Bereh did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Livyi Bereh conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kolos Kovalivka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Kolos Kovalivka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Kolos Kovalivka.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Livyi Bereh11164712-59
9Kolos Kovalivka103341314-112

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Livyi Bereh

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 51% today

Win 42%
Draw 53%
Defeat 59%

Kolos Kovalivka

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 4% today

Win 2%
Draw 4%
Defeat 5%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka

  • 13 April 2025Livyi Bereh 0–2 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
  • 5 October 2024Kolos Kovalivka 0–0 Livyi BerehPremier League
  • 7 September 2024Livyi Bereh 1–1 Kolos KovalivkaFriendlies Clubs
  • 23 June 2024Kolos Kovalivka 3–2 Livyi BerehFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka

Livyi Bereh

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Kolos Kovalivka

GoalsAssists

  • D. Ndukwe40
  • O. Demchenko31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Livyi Bereh v Kolos Kovalivka has moved

First published on 13 Nov at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 32% / 31% / 37%: the biggest move is Livyi Bereh's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Livyi Bereh win32%▼ −5
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Kolos Kovalivka win37%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Livyi Bereh Kolos Kovalivka
0.44 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.62
1.56 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.46
1.04 Model expected goals (this match) 1.17

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kolos Kovalivka the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Livyi Bereh against 1.17 for Kolos Kovalivka. Livyi Bereh's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.46 for Kolos Kovalivka.

How the model reaches 37% for Kolos Kovalivka to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kolos Kovalivka to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Livyi Bereh's ratings add 4 points and Kolos Kovalivka's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. Livyi Bereh's ratings32%+4
  5. Kolos Kovalivka's ratings37%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Livyi BerehKolos Kovalivka
11Matches10
1W 6D 4LRecord3W 3D 4L
7 0.6 per gameGoals scored13 1.3 per game
12 1.1 per gameGoals conceded14 1.4 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets2 of 10
5 of 11Failed to score3 of 10
–Penalties scored1 of 1
16 1.5 per gameYellow cards29 2.9 per game
0Red cards3
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-1-4-1 4×

Livyi Bereh at home · Kolos Kovalivka away

5Played7
0W 3D 2LRecord2W 2D 3L
2–7Goals for – against10–11
2 of 5Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Livyi Bereh 11, Kolos Kovalivka 10.

Livyi Bereh scored 121041
Kolos Kovalivka conceded 242141

Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Kolos Kovalivka have let in 4 there.

Kolos Kovalivka scored 133204
Livyi Bereh conceded 022230

Kolos Kovalivka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Livyi Bereh

  • at Dynamo Kyiv2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 12%
  • at Veres Rivne5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
  • vs Dynamo Kyiv12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
  • at Kudrivka27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 31%

Kolos Kovalivka

  • at LNZ Cherkasy5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
  • vs Polessya9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
  • vs Zorya Luhansk12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.