Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Livyi Bereh
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Livyi Bereh
The model makes it 76% Shakhtar Donetsk, 17% draw, 7% Livyi Bereh — fair odds of 1.32, 5.88 and 14.29.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.51, Livyi Bereh 0.47.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Shakhtar Donetsk's rating is built from 42 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Livyi Bereh's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Shakhtar Donetsk are top on 29 points from 12 games; Livyi Bereh are 12th on 9 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Dynamo Kyiv.
- Livyi Bereh have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Bukovyna.
- Last 2 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2025, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Livyi Bereh.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh
Has the model earned this number?
Shakhtar Donetsk at 76%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League
- D0-0Dynamo Kyiv8 November 2026
- W2-0Obolon'-Brovar30 October 2026
- D0-0Zorya Luhansk24 October 2026
- W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
Livyi Bereh
Premier League
- L0-3Bukovyna14 November 2026
- D1-1away to Obolon'-Brovar6 November 2026
- D0-0LNZ Cherkasy24 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Kharkiv19 October 2026
- L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026
What these results say
- Shakhtar Donetsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Livyi Bereh did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Livyi Bereh conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 29 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shakhtar Donetsk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 68% today
Livyi Bereh
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 51% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh
- 24 February 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Livyi BerehPremier League
- 18 August 2024Livyi Bereh 0–1 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- Alisson Santana32
- Kauã Elias30
Livyi Bereh
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 67.9% chance of the title and Livyi Bereh 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 0.47 for Livyi Bereh. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.56 for Livyi Bereh.
How the model reaches 76% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings add 19 points and Livyi Bereh's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 76%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings60%+19
- Livyi Bereh's ratings76%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Shakhtar Donetsk at home · Livyi Bereh away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 12, Livyi Bereh 11.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 3 there.
Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Shakhtar Donetsk
- vs Fenerbahçe25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Bukovyna30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 71%
- vs Kryvbas KR5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 78%
- at Slovan Bratislava9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
- vs Kudrivka12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 85%
Livyi Bereh
- vs Kolos Kovalivka27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Dynamo Kyiv2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 12%
- at Veres Rivne5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Dynamo Kyiv12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at Kudrivka27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.