Ukrainian Premier League predictions

Friday 20 November — 1 match

• 16:00 UTC Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh — model 76% / 17% / 7%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.32 · 5.88 · 14.29. One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

• 11:00 UTC Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv — model 31% / 29% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.45 · 2.50. Edge: FC Kharkiv
• 11:00 UTC Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka — model 56% / 22% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.55 · 4.55. Edge: Kryvbas KR
• 16:00 UTC Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk — model 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.79 · 4.17 · 5.00. Edge: Karpaty

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

• 11:00 UTC Dynamo Kyiv vs Obolon'-Brovar — model 75% / 16% / 9%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.33 · 6.25 · 11.11. One-sided: Dynamo Kyiv
• 11:00 UTC Veres Rivne vs Bukovyna — model 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.33 · 2.63. Edge: Bukovyna

Monday 23 November — 2 matches

• 11:00 UTC Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — model 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.45 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 11:00 UTC LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya — model 33% / 30% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.33 · 2.70. Edge: Polessya

Wednesday 25 November — 1 match

• 11:00 UTC Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv — model 26% / 26% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.85 · 3.85 · 2.08. One-sided: FC Kharkiv

Friday 27 November — 1 match

• 11:00 UTC Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka — model 32% / 31% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.23 · 2.70. Edge: Kolos Kovalivka

Saturday 28 November — 2 matches

• 11:00 UTC Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets — model 65% / 22% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.55 · 7.69. One-sided: Dynamo Kyiv
• 11:00 UTC Obolon'-Brovar vs Zorya Luhansk — model 28% / 27% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.70 · 2.22. One-sided: Zorya Luhansk

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

• 11:00 UTC Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne — model 54% / 25% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.00 · 4.76. Edge: Kryvbas KR
• 11:00 UTC Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy — model 29% / 30% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.33 · 2.44. Edge: LNZ Cherkasy
• 16:00 UTC Karpaty vs Polessya — model 39% / 27% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.70 · 2.94. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

14 November: the model called the result of 0 of 1 matches. Across all 37 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 51% of results.

• Livyi Bereh 0–3 Bukovyna — the model said 44% / 31% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Ukrainian Premier League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Shakhtar Donetsk — 29 pts from 12 (9W 2D 1L, goals 22–5)
• 2. Polessya — 28 pts from 11 (9W 1D 1L, goals 25–8)
• 3. Dynamo Kyiv — 23 pts from 11 (7W 2D 2L, goals 16–9)
• 4. FC Kharkiv — 21 pts from 9 (7W 0D 2L, goals 18–7)
• 5. Karpaty — 19 pts from 11 (5W 4D 2L, goals 22–8)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 149 matches left: Shakhtar Donetsk 67.9%, Polessya 22.2%, Dynamo Kyiv 5.2%.

Leading scorers: I. Krasnopir (Polessya) 8 goals, B. Zabërgja (FC Kharkiv) 6 goals, M. Ponomarenko (Dynamo Kyiv) 6 goals.