Lokomotiv
vs
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv 2–1 Dinamo Makhachkala
The model makes it 50% Lokomotiv, 25% draw, 25% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv 1.83, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.13.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Lokomotiv: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Lokomotiv's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Dinamo Makhachkala's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- Lokomotiv are 15th on 11 points from 14 games; Dinamo Makhachkala are 11th on 16 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- Lokomotiv are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rubin.
- Dinamo Makhachkala have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Baltika.
- Last 6 meetings: Lokomotiv 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1 Lokomotiv.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Has the model earned this number?
Lokomotiv at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Lokomotiv
Premier League
- L0-1Rubin6 November 2026
- L0-4Spartak Moscow1 November 2026
- L0-2away to FC Rostov25 October 2026
- D3-3FC Krasnodar17 October 2026
- W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League
- W1-0away to Baltika8 November 2026
- L0-3FC Rostov1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Zenit25 October 2026
- D1-1Akron17 October 2026
- L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lokomotiv | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Makhachkala
- 1 August 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 12 April 2026Lokomotiv 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 20 September 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 11 March 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 LokomotivCup
- 28 February 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 10 August 2024Lokomotiv 2–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and Dinamo Makhachkala
Lokomotiv
GoalsAssists
- N. Titkov31
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dinamo Makhachkala (11th, with Lokomotiv 15th), while our numbers lean to Lokomotiv. Lokomotiv rate 0.56 in attack and 2.00 in defence, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.46 and 2.12 (lower is better in defence), so Lokomotiv have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Lokomotiv against 1.13 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Lokomotiv's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.12 for Dinamo Makhachkala.
How the model reaches 50% for Lokomotiv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lokomotiv to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Lokomotiv's ratings add 4 points and Dinamo Makhachkala's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Lokomotiv's ratings46%+4
- Dinamo Makhachkala's ratings50%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lokomotiv at home · Dinamo Makhachkala away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Lokomotiv 14, Dinamo Makhachkala 14.
Dinamo Makhachkala score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Lokomotiv have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv
- at Akhmat5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Krylia Sovetov27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs CSKA Moscow6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Dynamo13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Dinamo Makhachkala
- vs Krylia Sovetov4 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs FC Orenburg27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Fakel6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Akron13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.