Regular Season - 14 · 29 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Ried vs TSV Hartberg Bundesliga prediction

Innviertel Arena, Ried

Our model says: Ried 2–1 TSV Hartberg

The model makes it 37% Ried, 27% draw, 36% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Ried 1.50, TSV Hartberg 1.48.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: Ried and TSV Hartberg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Ried's rating is built from 47 Austrian Bundesliga matches and TSV Hartberg's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.

Key facts

Ried are 6th on 16 points from 12 games; TSV Hartberg are 4th on 20 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
Ried are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Lask Linz.
TSV Hartberg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to SCR Altach.
Last 6 meetings: TSV Hartberg 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended TSV Hartberg 3–2 Ried.

More Austrian Bundesliga predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ried vs TSV Hartberg

61%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ried win Draw TSV Hartberg win

1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–26%
2–06%

Scores read Ried first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ried at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ried vs TSV Hartberg

Ried

Bundesliga

L2-4Lask Linz7 November 2026
D1-1away to SCR Altach31 October 2026
D2-2away to Sturm Graz25 October 2026
W3-2Austria Vienna17 October 2026
W2-1away to WSG Wattens10 October 2026

TSV Hartberg

Bundesliga

W3-0SCR Altach8 November 2026
W4-0away to Grazer AK30 October 2026
W1-0Wolfsberger AC24 October 2026
L1-3away to Rapid Vienna16 October 2026
W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026

What these results say

Ried scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Ried conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ried.
TSV Hartberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
TSV Hartberg won 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for TSV Hartberg had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	21	22	-1	16
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	23	19	+4	20

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Ried vs TSV Hartberg

30 August 2026TSV Hartberg 3–2 RiedBundesliga
22 November 2025TSV Hartberg 2–0 RiedBundesliga
14 September 2025Ried 0–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
27 May 2023TSV Hartberg 2–0 RiedBundesliga
8 April 2023Ried 1–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
12 February 2023Ried 0–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga

Leading scorers: Ried and TSV Hartberg

Ried

GoalsAssists

S. Schwab42
P. Pomer41
I. Kiese Thelin40

TSV Hartberg

GoalsAssists

C. Hoffmann61
M. Hoffman40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour TSV Hartberg (fourth, with Ried sixth), while our numbers lean to Ried. Ried rate 0.64 in attack and 1.61 in defence, TSV Hartberg 0.70 and 1.41 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ried TSV Hartberg

0.64 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7

1.61 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.41

1.50 Model expected goals (this match) 1.48

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ried the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ried against 1.48 for TSV Hartberg. Ried's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.41 for TSV Hartberg.

Ried carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.5 for TSV Hartberg. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Ried to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ried to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Ried's ratings take away 3 points and TSV Hartberg's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Ried's ratings40%−3
TSV Hartberg's ratings37%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

RiedModelTSV Hartberg

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

80%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

57%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

35%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Both teams score

90%

9 of 10 games

61%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

RiedTSV Hartberg

12Matches12

4W 4D 4LRecord6W 2D 4L

21 1.8 per gameGoals scored23 1.9 per game

22 1.8 per gameGoals conceded19 1.6 per game

1 of 12Clean sheets3 of 12

0 of 12Failed to score3 of 12

5 of 5Penalties scored1 of 1

27 2.3 per gameYellow cards18 1.5 per game

0Red cards1

4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape5-3-2 3×

Ried at home · TSV Hartberg away

6Played5

3W 1D 2LRecord2W 1D 2L

12–10Goals for – against9–7

1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

RiedTSV Hartberg

Ried are 6th after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 4th and 10th so far); TSV Hartberg are 4th after 12 (between 4th and 12th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Bundesliga matches this season: Ried 12, TSV Hartberg 12.

Ried scored 525224

TSV Hartberg conceded 413246

TSV Hartberg scored 523435

Ried conceded 544115

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Ried

vs WSG Wattens6 Dec · Bundesligawin 47%
at Rapid Vienna12 Dec · Bundesligawin 13%
vs SCR Altach23 Jan · Bundesligawin 49%
at Red Bull Salzburg30 Jan · Bundesligawin 13%

TSV Hartberg

vs Grazer AK5 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
at Austria Lustenau11 Dec · Bundesligawin 50%
vs Rapid Vienna23 Jan · Bundesligawin 26%
at Wolfsberger AC30 Jan · Bundesligawin 49%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.