Lommel United
vs
Zulte Waregem
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Lommel United 1–0 Zulte Waregem
The model makes it 55% Lommel United, 25% draw, 20% Zulte Waregem — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lommel United 1.90, Zulte Waregem 0.95.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Lommel United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Lommel United's rating is built from 17 Jupiler Pro League matches and Zulte Waregem's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.
Key facts
- Lommel United are 6th on 16 points from 11 games; Zulte Waregem are 14th on 11 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Lommel United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Antwerp.
- Zulte Waregem have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to St. Truiden.
- Last 6 meetings: Lommel United 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2025, ended Zulte Waregem 0–1 Lommel United.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem
Has the model earned this number?
Lommel United at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem
Lommel United
Jupiler Pro League
- D2-2away to Antwerp7 November 2026
- W2-0Gent1 November 2026
- D2-2away to OH Leuven24 October 2026
- W3-1away to SK Beveren9 October 2026
- D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026
Zulte Waregem
Jupiler Pro League
- L1-4away to St. Truiden8 November 2026
- L2-4Club Brugge KV30 October 2026
- L0-3away to RAAL La Louvière24 October 2026
- L0-2Gent10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Anderlecht19 September 2026
What these results say
- Lommel United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lommel United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zulte Waregem did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zulte Waregem conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Zulte Waregem had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lommel United | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 16 |
| 14 | Zulte Waregem | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lommel United
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
Zulte Waregem
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 6% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem
- 8 March 2025Zulte Waregem 0–1 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 14 December 2024Lommel United 1–2 Zulte WaregemChallenger Pro League
- 1 May 2024Lommel United 1–0 Zulte WaregemChallenger Pro League
- 27 April 2024Zulte Waregem 1–1 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 10 February 2024Zulte Waregem 0–3 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 27 October 2023Lommel United 1–1 Zulte WaregemChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: Lommel United and Zulte Waregem
Lommel United
GoalsAssists
- Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu51
Zulte Waregem
GoalsAssists
- T. Hedl42
- Á. Zalán40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lommel United a 0.1% chance of the title and Zulte Waregem 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lommel United the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Lommel United against 0.95 for Zulte Waregem. Lommel United's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.24 for Zulte Waregem.
How the model reaches 55% for Lommel United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lommel United to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Lommel United's ratings add 6 points and Zulte Waregem's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Lommel United's ratings48%+6
- Zulte Waregem's ratings55%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lommel United at home · Zulte Waregem away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Lommel UnitedZulte Waregem
Lommel United are 6th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 4th and 13th so far); Zulte Waregem are 14th after 11 (between 1st and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Lommel United 11, Zulte Waregem 11.
Zulte Waregem score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Lommel United have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lommel United
- at Kortrijk12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 55%
- vs RAAL La Louvière19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 60%
- at Genk27 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
- vs Anderlecht16 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
Zulte Waregem
- vs Standard Liege12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 37%
- at Cercle Brugge19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 25%
- at KV Mechelen27 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
- vs OH Leuven17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.