Cercle Brugge
vs
KV Mechelen
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Cercle Brugge 2–1 KV Mechelen
The model makes it 52% Cercle Brugge, 24% draw, 24% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cercle Brugge 2.08, KV Mechelen 1.24.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Cercle Brugge: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cercle Brugge's rating is built from 47 Jupiler Pro League matches and KV Mechelen's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.
Key facts
- Cercle Brugge are 16th on 9 points from 11 games; KV Mechelen are 11th on 12 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Cercle Brugge have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to RAAL La Louvière.
- KV Mechelen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to OH Leuven.
- Last 6 meetings: KV Mechelen 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 December 2025, ended Cercle Brugge 2–3 KV Mechelen.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cercle Brugge vs KV Mechelen
Has the model earned this number?
Cercle Brugge at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cercle Brugge vs KV Mechelen
Cercle Brugge
Jupiler Pro League
- W1-0away to RAAL La Louvière7 November 2026
- W2-1Antwerp1 November 2026
- L2-5away to Union St. Gilloise25 October 2026
- L1-2Anderlecht10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Charleroi19 September 2026
KV Mechelen
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-2away to OH Leuven7 November 2026
- W3-1away to Kortrijk4 November 2026
- W1-0Genk31 October 2026
- W4-3St. Truiden11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026
What these results say
- Cercle Brugge scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cercle Brugge conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cercle Brugge had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cercle Brugge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | KV Mechelen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cercle Brugge
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 3% today
KV Mechelen
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cercle Brugge vs KV Mechelen
- 13 December 2025Cercle Brugge 2–3 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 21 September 2025KV Mechelen 0–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 12 January 2025Cercle Brugge 1–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 22 September 2024KV Mechelen 2–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 2 March 2024Cercle Brugge 2–3 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
- 28 October 2023KV Mechelen 0–2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour KV Mechelen (11th, with Cercle Brugge 16th), while our numbers lean to Cercle Brugge. Cercle Brugge rate 1.02 in attack and 1.23 in defence, KV Mechelen 0.78 and 1.24 (lower is better in defence), so Cercle Brugge have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cercle Brugge the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Cercle Brugge against 1.24 for KV Mechelen. Cercle Brugge's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.24 for KV Mechelen.
How the model reaches 52% for Cercle Brugge to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Cercle Brugge to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Cercle Brugge's ratings add 5 points and KV Mechelen's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Cercle Brugge's ratings49%+5
- KV Mechelen's ratings52%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cercle Brugge at home · KV Mechelen away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Cercle BruggeKV Mechelen
Cercle Brugge are 16th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); KV Mechelen are 11th after 11 (between 10th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Cercle Brugge 11, KV Mechelen 11.
Cercle Brugge score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); KV Mechelen have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cercle Brugge
- at SK Beveren12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
- vs Zulte Waregem19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 51%
- at Kortrijk26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 52%
- vs Genk17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 40%
KV Mechelen
- vs Union St. Gilloise13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
- at SK Beveren19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs Zulte Waregem27 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 42%
- at Antwerp16 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.