Lyon vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Lyon 1-2 Fenerbahçe.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Lyon, 21% draw, 35% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.27, 4.76 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyon at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lyon vs Fenerbahçe
Lyon
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe18 August 2026
- W3-0Sparta Praha11 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026
Fenerbahçe
- D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
- W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
- W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Fenerbahçe
- 23 January 2025Fenerbahçe 0–0 LyonUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Lyon and Fenerbahçe
Lyon
No leading scorers listed yet.
Fenerbahçe
- Talisca4 goals
- M. Greenwood2 goals2 assists
- A. Brown2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.