Fenerbahçe vs Lyon UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Fenerbahçe, 20% draw, 23% Lyon — fair odds of 1.75, 5.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 57% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Lyon
Fenerbahçe
- W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
- W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
Lyon
- W3-0Sparta Praha11 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sparta Praha4 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Lyon
- 23 January 2025Fenerbahçe 0–0 LyonUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Lyon
Fenerbahçe
- Talisca4 goals
- M. Greenwood2 goals2 assists
- A. Brown2 goals
Lyon
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.