Mura
vs
Maribor
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Mura 0–1 Maribor
The model makes it 28% Mura, 28% draw, 44% Maribor — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Mura 1.13, Maribor 1.53.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
One-sided: Maribor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Mura's rating is built from 49 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Maribor's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Mura are 9th on 14 points from 15 games; Maribor are 2nd on 24 points from 15 games — 1. SNL.
- Mura are unbeaten in their last 5 games (0 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Koper.
- Maribor are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Bravo.
- Last 6 meetings: Maribor 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Maribor 1–1 Mura.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mura vs Maribor
Has the model earned this number?
Maribor at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mura vs Maribor
Mura
1. SNL
- D1-1away to Koper7 November 2026
- D0-0Brinje-Grosuplje1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Radomlje27 October 2026
- D0-0Nafta17 October 2026
- D3-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana10 October 2026
Maribor
1. SNL
- L1-2away to Bravo7 November 2026
- L0-1Olimpija Ljubljana31 October 2026
- L0-4away to Koper27 October 2026
- D0-0Celje18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026
What these results say
- Mura went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mura did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mura had two goals or fewer.
- Maribor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maribor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mura | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 14 |
| 2 | Maribor | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mura
Chance to finish in the bottom one · 20% today
Maribor
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Mura vs Maribor
- 6 September 2026Maribor 1–1 Mura1. SNL
- 17 May 2026Mura 2–1 Maribor1. SNL
- 14 March 2026Maribor 3–0 Mura1. SNL
- 29 November 2025Mura 0–1 Maribor1. SNL
- 13 September 2025Maribor 1–0 Mura1. SNL
- 21 April 2025Mura 1–2 Maribor1. SNL
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mura a 0% chance of the title and Maribor 8.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maribor the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mura against 1.53 for Maribor. Mura's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.42 for Maribor.
How the model reaches 44% for Maribor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Maribor to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Mura's ratings add 8 points and Maribor's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Mura's ratings36%+8
- Maribor's ratings44%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Mura at home · Maribor away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Mura 15, Maribor 15.
Mura score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Maribor have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mura
- at Aluminij5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 21%
- at Celje30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 11%
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 27%
- at Nafta10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 23%
Maribor
- vs Radomlje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 66%
- at Aluminij30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 34%
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 61%
- at Celje10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.