Montpellier vs PAU Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Montpellier 1-0 PAU.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Montpellier, 28% draw, 28% PAU — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Montpellier at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Montpellier vs PAU
Line-ups
- 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
- 3Naoufel El HannachD
- 15J. LaporteD
- 6Y. MouangaD
- 17T. Sainte-LuceD
- 5F. TardieuM
- 27D. MeddahM
- 18N. PaysM
- 90Gregory AyemM
- 19N. MukieleM
- 11M. CamaraF
- 32Hichem AbderrebiM
- 23Daryll BenlahlouF
- 44T. ChennahiM
- 50V. DžodiÄG
- 39J. HatchiF
- 9Lacine Megnan-PaveF
- 77EversonM
- 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
- 1B. MaubleuG
- 2T. PouillyD
- 29G. PaquiezD
- 23A. BriançonD
- 8S. BasseD
- 97A. AbdallahD
- 6C. FallM
- 21J. BenetM
- 5L. RajotM
- 7H. BenaliF
- 9B. LeyeF
- 39M. TourraineD
- 18J. SebasF
- 30E. SallesG
- 19T. SaettelF
- 22R. BahengD
- 11A. LefebvreF
- 27L. GadegbekuM
- 4A. DodoteD
- 10B. BrahimiM
Form going into Montpellier vs PAU
Montpellier
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dunkerque21 August 2026
- W1-0away to Nancy14 August 2026
- D1-1Dijon8 August 2026
PAU
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
- L0-1Nancy21 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026
- L0-1Annecy8 August 2026
What these results say
- Montpellier scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Montpellier had two goals or fewer.
- PAU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAU had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Montpellier | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
| 5 | PAU | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Montpellier vs PAU
- 20 March 2026PAU 0–0 MontpellierLigue 2
- 6 December 2025Montpellier 0–1 PAULigue 2
- 6 January 2023PAU 2–1 MontpellierCoupe de France
Leading scorers: Montpellier and PAU
Montpellier
GoalsAssists
- N. Pays52
- Lacine Megnan-Pave42
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Montpellier beat PAU 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Montpellier at 44%. The goal: Theo Sainte Luce 72' for Montpellier.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.