Ligue 2 predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 9 matches

19:00 UTC Nantes vs Grenoble — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57. Evenly matched
19:00 UTC Guingamp vs Rodez — model 40% / 27% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.70 · 3.03. Evenly matched
19:00 UTC Reims vs Saint Etienne — model 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.70 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
19:00 UTC Nancy vs Dijon — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched
19:00 UTC RED Star FC 93 vs PAU — model 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.70 · 3.23. Evenly matched
19:00 UTC Metz vs Boulogne — model 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.57 · 3.33. Evenly matched
19:00 UTC Sochaux vs Dunkerque — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50. Edge: Dunkerque
19:00 UTC Laval vs Montpellier — model 22% / 28% / 50%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.55 · 3.57 · 2.00. One-sided: Montpellier
19:00 UTC Annecy vs Clermont Foot — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–7 November: the model called the result of 4 of 9 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 108 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 34% of results.

Boulogne 3–0 Annecy — the model said 32% / 32% / 36%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Dijon 1–0 RED Star FC 93 — the model said 46% / 24% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Dunkerque 3–0 Guingamp — the model said 40% / 27% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Grenoble 3–2 Reims — the model said 23% / 26% / 51%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Montpellier 2–3 Metz — the model said 56% / 26% / 18%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Nancy 1–0 Sochaux — the model said 51% / 28% / 21%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Clermont Foot 1–0 Rodez — the model said 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
PAU 0–2 Nantes — the model said 49% / 26% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Saint Etienne 2–0 Laval — the model said 60% / 23% / 17%, most likely 2-0: exact scoreline.

Ligue 2 so far

Top of the table

1. Saint Etienne — 28 pts from 12 (9W 1D 2L, goals 25–11)
2. Nancy — 25 pts from 12 (8W 1D 3L, goals 17–9)
3. Montpellier — 24 pts from 12 (7W 3D 2L, goals 18–9)
4. Reims — 21 pts from 12 (5W 6D 1L, goals 24–15)
5. PAU — 20 pts from 12 (6W 2D 4L, goals 16–13)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 198 matches left: Saint Etienne 51.1%, Montpellier 23.3%, Reims 11.8%.

Leading scorers: Y. Fofana (Reims) 11 goals, P. Fall (Metz) 8 goals, I. Cardona (Saint Etienne) 6 goals.