11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Rennes vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Roazhon Park, Rennes
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Rennes 1-0 Marseille.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Rennes, 27% draw, 33% Marseille — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rennes at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rennes95%Draw5%Marseille0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Himad Abdelli
Przemysław Frankowski
43'
43'
Igor Paixão
🔁Issa Soumaréout: Mousa Al-Tamari
45'
⚽Adrien Thomasson
52'
65'
🔁Angel Gomesout: Keyliane Abdallah
🔁Przemysław Frankowskiout: Bryan Reynolds
68'
🔁Esteban Lepaulout: Boulaye Dia
78'
🔁Ludovic Blasout: Sebastian Szymański
78'
78'
🔁Himad Abdelliout: Neal Maupay
85'
Amine Harit
🔁Mousa Al-Tamariout: Eliezer Mayenda
86'
88'
🔁Igor Paixãoout: Faris Moumbagna
88'
🔁Amine Gouiriout: Tadjidine Mmadi
88'
🔁Nayef Aguerdout: Derek Cornelius
90+4'
Timothy Weah

Match stats — Rennes vs Marseille

49%Possession51%
20Shots13
7On target5
3Corners5

Line-ups

Rennes 4-3-3
  • 30B. SambaG
  • 95P. FrankowskiD
  • 4C. CresswellD
  • 24A. RouaultD
  • 18M. NagidaD
  • 45M. CamaraM
  • 21V. RongierM
  • 28A. ThomassonM
  • 10L. BlasF
  • 9E. LepaulF
  • 90I. SoumaréF
Substitutes
  • 26Q. MerlinD
  • 14B. ReynoldsD
  • 17S. SzymańskiM
  • 11Mousa TamariF
  • 48A. Ait BoudlalD
  • 22B. DiaF
  • 65H. Do MarcolinoF
  • 16N. LemaîtreG
  • 12Eliezer MayendaF
Coach: F. Haise
Marseille 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. de LangeG
  • 22T. WeahD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 33EmersonD
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 23P. HøjbjergM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 14Igor PaixãoM
  • 9A. GouiriF
Substitutes
  • 13D. CorneliusD
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 11N. MaupayF
  • 18B. MeitéD
  • 43T. MmadiF
  • 29F. MoumbagnaF
  • 92T. VermotG
  • 48K. AbdallahF
  • 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
Coach: Bruno Genesio

Form going into Rennes vs Marseille

Rennes

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
  • W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026

Marseille

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
  • W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rennes105142121016
4Marseille106042214+818

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rennes vs Marseille

  • 17 May 2026Marseille 3–1 RennesLigue 1
  • 3 February 2026Marseille 3–0 RennesCoupe de France
  • 15 August 2025Rennes 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 17 May 2025Marseille 4–2 RennesLigue 1
  • 11 January 2025Rennes 1–2 MarseilleLigue 1

The full Rennes vs Marseille record →

Leading scorers: Rennes and Marseille

Rennes

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lepaul70
  • B. Dia50
  • S. Szymański41

Marseille

GoalsAssists

  • A. Gouiri73
  • A. Harit31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rennes beat Marseille 1–0. The model had made a win for Rennes its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Adrien Thomasson 52' for Rennes.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.