MTK Budapest
vs
Ujpest
NB I prediction
Our model says: MTK Budapest 1–2 Ujpest
The model makes it 35% MTK Budapest, 25% draw, 40% Ujpest — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.71, Ujpest 1.84.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. MTK Budapest's rating is built from 46 Hungarian NB I matches and Ujpest's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 473 matches.
Key facts
- MTK Budapest are 10th on 13 points from 13 games; Ujpest are 6th on 18 points from 13 games — NB I.
- MTK Budapest are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Budapest Honved.
- Ujpest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Debreceni VSC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Ujpest 1–1 MTK Budapest.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MTK Budapest vs Ujpest
Has the model earned this number?
Ujpest at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MTK Budapest vs Ujpest
MTK Budapest
NB I
- D2-2Budapest Honved7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Zalaegerszegi TE31 October 2026
- L0-5away to Ferencvarosi TC25 October 2026
- W1-0Vasas16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026
Ujpest
NB I
- L1-3away to Debreceni VSC8 November 2026
- W2-1Nyiregyhaza1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Gyori ETO FC24 October 2026
- L0-1Puskas Academy17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Budapest Honved11 October 2026
What these results say
- MTK Budapest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for MTK Budapest had three goals or more.
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | MTK Budapest | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Ujpest | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
MTK Budapest
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 55% today
Ujpest
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 9% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Ujpest
- 15 August 2026Ujpest 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 4 April 2026Ujpest 2–2 MTK BudapestNB I
- 13 December 2025MTK Budapest 3–4 UjpestNB I
- 30 August 2025Ujpest 1–2 MTK BudapestNB I
- 24 May 2025MTK Budapest 1–3 UjpestNB I
- 1 March 2025Ujpest 1–5 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers: MTK Budapest and Ujpest
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek71
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
Ujpest
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko63
- E. Amenyido45
- G. Vlijter32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MTK Budapest a 0% chance of the title and Ujpest 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ujpest the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for MTK Budapest against 1.84 for Ujpest. MTK Budapest's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.61 for Ujpest.
How the model reaches 40% for Ujpest to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ujpest to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, MTK Budapest's ratings add 4 points and Ujpest's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level33%+1
- MTK Budapest's ratings37%+4
- Ujpest's ratings40%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
MTK Budapest at home · Ujpest away
League matches only, NB I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MTK BudapestUjpest
MTK Budapest are 10th after 13 NB I matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Ujpest are 6th after 13 (between 1st and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: MTK Budapest 13, Ujpest 13.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MTK Budapest
- at Nyiregyhaza5 Dec · NB Iwin 31%
- vs Debreceni VSC13 Dec · NB Iwin 27%
- at Kisvarda FC20 Dec · NB Iwin 30%
- at Gyori ETO FC30 Jan · NB Iwin 17%
Ujpest
- vs Paks5 Dec · NB Iwin 36%
- at Vasas12 Dec · NB Iwin 31%
- vs Ferencvarosi TC19 Dec · NB Iwin 23%
- at Zalaegerszegi TE30 Jan · NB Iwin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.