Hungarian NB I predictions

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

• 12:30 UTC Puskas Academy vs MTK Budapest — model 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.17 · 4.35. Edge: Puskas Academy
• 15:00 UTC Ujpest vs Kisvarda FC — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 17:30 UTC Ferencvarosi TC vs Gyori ETO FC — model 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.70 · 4.00. Edge: Ferencvarosi TC

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

• 12:30 UTC Zalaegerszegi TE vs Vasas — model 39% / 26% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.85 · 2.86. Evenly matched
• 15:00 UTC Nyiregyhaza vs Debreceni VSC — model 28% / 25% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 4.00 · 2.13. Edge: Debreceni VSC
• 17:30 UTC Budapest Honved vs Paks — model 33% / 26% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.85 · 2.44. Edge: Paks

Friday 27 November — 1 match

• 18:30 UTC Gyori ETO FC vs Debreceni VSC — model 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

• 12:30 UTC Vasas vs Budapest Honved — model 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 15:45 UTC MTK Budapest vs Ujpest — model 35% / 25% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 4.00 · 2.50. Evenly matched
• 18:15 UTC Kisvarda FC vs Nyiregyhaza — model 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.45 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

• 13:15 UTC Ferencvarosi TC vs Zalaegerszegi TE — model 62% / 22% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.61 · 4.55 · 6.25. One-sided: Ferencvarosi TC
• 15:30 UTC Paks vs Puskas Academy — model 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.85 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 4 of 6 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 76 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 39% of results.

• Paks 2–1 Zalaegerszegi TE — the model said 50% / 24% / 26%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
• MTK Budapest 2–2 Budapest Honved — the model said 37% / 26% / 37%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Kisvarda FC 0–1 Puskas Academy — the model said 33% / 31% / 36%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
• Nyiregyhaza 1–1 Gyori ETO FC — the model said 25% / 25% / 50%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Debreceni VSC 3–1 Ujpest — the model said 49% / 25% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Vasas 0–2 Ferencvarosi TC — the model said 27% / 26% / 47%, most likely 1-2: result correct.

Hungarian NB I so far

Top of the table

• 1. Puskas Academy — 24 pts from 13 (8W 0D 5L, goals 18–15)
• 2. Ferencvarosi TC — 23 pts from 12 (6W 5D 1L, goals 22–10)
• 3. Gyori ETO FC — 23 pts from 13 (6W 5D 2L, goals 22–15)
• 4. Debreceni VSC — 22 pts from 13 (6W 4D 3L, goals 24–18)
• 5. Paks — 20 pts from 13 (6W 2D 5L, goals 24–22)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 121 matches left: Ferencvarosi TC 69.2%, Gyori ETO FC 14.8%, Debreceni VSC 7.5%.

Leading scorers: G. Jurek (MTK Budapest) 7 goals, Á. Szendrei (Debreceni VSC) 6 goals, M. Pető (Paks) 6 goals.