New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 0-3 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% New York Red Bulls, 28% draw, 39% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
Line-ups
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 14J. BazánD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 37M. SofoM
- 60S. KoneM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 7C. CowellF
- 45C. FaelloD
- 88Pedro CastroM
- 80N. WorthM
- 6R. VoloderD
- 66T. RosboroughM
- 70A. RojasF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 1R. BürkiG
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 27F. FallD
- 6C. WallemM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 23A. MățanF
- 28M. PerezM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 11S. BecherF
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 59M. JoynerM
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 7T. OstrákM
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps6 September 2026
- D3-3FC Dallas30 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York Red Bulls had two goals or fewer.
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
- 24 January 2026New York Red Bulls 3–1 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs
- 29 January 2025New York Red Bulls 0–1 St. Louis CityFriendlies Clubs
- 10 February 2024St. Louis City 2–2 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St. Louis City won 3–0 at New York Red Bulls. The model had made a win for St. Louis City its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Rafael Navarro Leal 5' for St. Louis City, Simon Becher 87' for St. Louis City, Tomas Ostrak 90+1' for St. Louis City.
How the call on New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City has moved
First published on 12 Sep at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- New York Red Bulls win33%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- St. Louis City win39%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.