29 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Slovenia vs North Macedonia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stožice Stadium, Ljubljana
Referee: Andrea Colombo
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Slovenia, 29% draw, 23% North Macedonia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Slovenia at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slovenia99%Draw1%North Macedonia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

51'
Andrej Stojchevski
⚽Sandi Lovricassist: Tjas Begic
55'
57'
Jani Atanasov
61'
🔁Dimitar Mitrovskiout: Hristijan Maleski
61'
🔁Agon Eleziout: Enis Bardhi
🔁Tjas Begicout: Aljosa Matko
71'
🔁Zan Vipotnikout: Žan Celar
71'
🔁Sandi Lovricout: Mark Zabukovnik
71'
71'
🔁Anes Meljichiout: Visar Musliu
71'
🔁Jani Atanasovout: Luka·Stankovski
Aljosa Matko
78'
80'
🔁Din Alomerovicout: Bojan Miovski
⚽Aljosa Matkoassist: Danijel Sturm
82'
🔁Adam Gnezda Čerinout: Timi Elsnik
85'
🔁Vanja Drkusicout: David Zec
85'

Match stats — Slovenia vs North Macedonia

52%Possession48%
16Shots10
5On target1
6Corners3

Line-ups

Slovenia 5-4-1
  • 1J. OblakG
  • 2Ž. KarničnikD
  • 23D. BrekaloD
  • 6J. BijolD
  • 21V. DrkušićD
  • 13E. JanžaD
  • 7T. BegićM
  • 8S. LovrićM
  • 22A. ČerinM
  • 15D. ŠturmM
  • 18Z. VipotnikF
Substitutes
  • 11Ž. CelarF
  • 17D. ZecD
  • 4M. ZabukovnikM
  • 12M. VidovšekG
  • 14T. SvetlinM
  • 9A. ŠporarF
  • 20A. MatkoF
  • 3J. BalkovecD
  • 10T. ElšnikM
Coach: B. Cesar
North Macedonia 4-2-3-1
  • 23S. DimitrievskiG
  • 4A. StojchevskiD
  • 14M. MladenovskiD
  • 13Anes MeljichiD
  • 3S. AlomeroviсD
  • 16M. GashtarovM
  • 21J. AtanasovM
  • 20D. MitrovskiM
  • 15A. EleziM
  • 7E. ElmasM
  • 17A. OmeragikjF
Substitutes
  • 1D. TaleskiG
  • 10E. BardhiM
  • 12D. ShishkovskiG
  • 11E. RastoderF
  • 6V. MusliuD
  • 9B. MiovskiF
  • 22H. MaleskiF
  • 19L. DorievF
  • 18G. DzhekovD
Coach: G. Sedloski

Form going into Slovenia vs North Macedonia

Slovenia

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Scotland26 September 2026

North Macedonia

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Slovenia522153+28
4North Macedonia5005112-110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slovenia vs North Macedonia

  • 1 June 2021North Macedonia 1–1 SloveniaFriendlies
  • 10 October 2019North Macedonia 2–1 SloveniaEuro Championship
  • 24 March 2019Slovenia 1–1 North MacedoniaEuro Championship

The result against the call

Slovenia beat North Macedonia 2–0. The model had made a win for Slovenia its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Sandi Lovric 55' for Slovenia, Aljosa Matko 82' for Slovenia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.