Oțelul
vs
Uta Arad
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Oțelul 1–0 Uta Arad
The model makes it 41% Oțelul, 29% draw, 30% Uta Arad — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Oțelul 1.41, Uta Arad 1.13.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Oțelul are 14th on 13 points from 15 games; Uta Arad are 10th on 18 points from 15 games — Liga I.
- Oțelul have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Botosani.
- Uta Arad have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Petrolul Ploiesti.
- Last 6 meetings: Oțelul 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Uta Arad 2–2 Oțelul.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oțelul vs Uta Arad
Has the model earned this number?
Oțelul at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oțelul vs Uta Arad
Oțelul
Liga I
- D1-1away to FC Botosani9 November 2026
- D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1 November 2026
- L3-4away to Farul Constanta25 October 2026
- D1-1Csikszereda16 October 2026
- L0-1away to FCSB10 October 2026
Uta Arad
Liga I
- L0-1Petrolul Ploiesti6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti24 October 2026
- W1-0CFR 1907 Cluj18 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Botosani10 October 2026
What these results say
- Oțelul did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Uta Arad had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Oțelul | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Oțelul
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Uta Arad
Chance to finish in the top six · 8% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Uta Arad
- 24 July 2026Uta Arad 2–2 OțelulLiga I
- 17 April 2026Oțelul 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 20 February 2026Oțelul 2–2 Uta AradLiga I
- 19 October 2025Uta Arad 0–4 OțelulLiga I
- 16 March 2025Uta Arad 2–0 OțelulLiga I
- 14 December 2024Oțelul 1–1 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers: Oțelul and Uta Arad
Oțelul
GoalsAssists
- Patrick40
Uta Arad
GoalsAssists
- M. Coman50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Uta Arad (10th, with Oțelul 14th), while our numbers lean to Oțelul. Oțelul rate 0.62 in attack and 1.79 in defence, Uta Arad 0.57 and 1.52 (lower is better in defence), so Oțelul have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oțelul the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Oțelul against 1.13 for Uta Arad. Oțelul's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.52 for Uta Arad.
How the model reaches 41% for Oțelul to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Oțelul to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Oțelul's ratings change nothing and Uta Arad's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Oțelul's ratings43%±0
- Uta Arad's ratings41%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Oțelul at home · Uta Arad away
League matches only, Liga I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
OțelulUta Arad
Oțelul are 14th after 15 Liga I matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Uta Arad are 10th after 15 (between 6th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Oțelul 15, Uta Arad 15.
Oțelul score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Uta Arad have let in 5 there.
Uta Arad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Oțelul have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Oțelul
- at Dinamo Bucuresti5 Dec · Liga Iwin 14%
- vs Petrolul Ploiesti12 Dec · Liga Iwin 40%
- at Universitatea Craiova19 Dec · Liga Iwin 9%
- at Arges Pitesti16 Jan · Liga Iwin 28%
Uta Arad
- vs FC Voluntari5 Dec · Liga Iwin 56%
- at Rapid12 Dec · Liga Iwin 19%
- vs Universitatea Cluj19 Dec · Liga Iwin 33%
- at Corvinul Hunedoara16 Jan · Liga Iwin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.