Universitatea Craiova
vs
Dinamo Bucuresti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Dinamo Bucuresti
The model makes it 52% Universitatea Craiova, 27% draw, 21% Dinamo Bucuresti — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 1.61, Dinamo Bucuresti 0.82.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Universitatea Craiova: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Universitatea Craiova's rating is built from 55 Romanian Liga I matches and Dinamo Bucuresti's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 760 matches.
Key facts
- Universitatea Craiova are top on 33 points from 15 games; Dinamo Bucuresti are 2nd on 33 points from 15 games — Liga I.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to CFR 1907 Cluj.
- Dinamo Bucuresti have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Arges Pitesti.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitatea Craiova 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Dinamo Bucuresti 5–1 Universitatea Craiova.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universitatea Craiova vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Has the model earned this number?
Universitatea Craiova at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Universitatea Craiova
Liga I
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj8 November 2026
- W2-1FC Botosani1 November 2026
- W5-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe26 October 2026
- W2-0Farul Constanta18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
Dinamo Bucuresti
Liga I
- L1-2away to Arges Pitesti6 November 2026
- W2-0Uta Arad1 November 2026
- D2-2away to CFR 1907 Cluj25 October 2026
- W2-0FC Botosani16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe9 October 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Bucuresti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 10 | +24 | 33 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Universitatea Craiova
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 65% today
Dinamo Bucuresti
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 27% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Dinamo Bucuresti
- 25 July 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 5–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 3 May 2026Universitatea Craiova 2–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 23 April 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 0–0 Universitatea CraiovaCupa României
- 19 March 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 0–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 9 February 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 26 September 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–2 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Dinamo Bucuresti
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor90
- A. Al Hamlawi70
Dinamo Bucuresti
GoalsAssists
- D. Armstrong610
- Martín Pascual50
- Alberto Soro44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universitatea Craiova a 65.1% chance of the title and Dinamo Bucuresti 26.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.82 for Dinamo Bucuresti. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.17 for Dinamo Bucuresti.
How the model reaches 52% for Universitatea Craiova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Universitatea Craiova to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Universitatea Craiova's ratings add 4 points and Dinamo Bucuresti's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Universitatea Craiova's ratings46%+4
- Dinamo Bucuresti's ratings52%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Universitatea Craiova at home · Dinamo Bucuresti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Universitatea CraiovaDinamo Bucuresti
Universitatea Craiova are 1st after 15 Liga I matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Dinamo Bucuresti are 2nd after 15 (between 1st and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Universitatea Craiova 15, Dinamo Bucuresti 15.
Universitatea Craiova score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Dinamo Bucuresti have let in 1 there.
Dinamo Bucuresti score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Universitatea Craiova have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Universitatea Craiova
- at Petrolul Ploiesti5 Dec · Liga Iwin 51%
- at Kairat Almaty10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 68%
- at Arges Pitesti12 Dec · Liga Iwin 51%
Dinamo Bucuresti
- vs Oțelul5 Dec · Liga Iwin 64%
- at FC Voluntari12 Dec · Liga Iwin 59%
- vs Rapid19 Dec · Liga Iwin 48%
- at Universitatea Cluj16 Jan · Liga Iwin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.