Romanian Liga I predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

15:30 UTC FC Botosani vs FC Voluntari — model 57% / 23% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.75 · 4.35 · 5.00. Edge: FC Botosani
18:30 UTC Farul Constanta vs Universitatea Cluj — model 36% / 26% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.85 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

13:00 UTC Csikszereda vs Corvinul Hunedoara — model 29% / 31% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.23 · 2.50. Edge: Corvinul Hunedoara
15:30 UTC CFR 1907 Cluj vs Oțelul — model 54% / 25% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 4.00 · 4.76. Edge: CFR 1907 Cluj
18:30 UTC Dinamo Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti — model 58% / 25% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.00 · 5.88. Edge: Dinamo Bucuresti

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

15:30 UTC Uta Arad vs Universitatea Craiova — model 20% / 28% / 52%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.00 · 3.57 · 1.92. One-sided: Universitatea Craiova
18:30 UTC Arges Pitesti vs FCSB — model 33% / 32% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.13 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach

Monday 23 November — 1 match

18:00 UTC Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Rapid — model 24% / 29% / 47%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.45 · 2.13. One-sided: Rapid

Saturday 28 November — 8 matches

18:00 UTC FCSB vs Csikszereda — model 61% / 24% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.17 · 6.67. One-sided: FCSB
18:00 UTC Universitatea Craiova vs Dinamo Bucuresti — model 52% / 27% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.70 · 4.76. Edge: Universitatea Craiova
18:00 UTC FC Voluntari vs CFR 1907 Cluj — model 26% / 26% / 48%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.85 · 3.85 · 2.08. One-sided: CFR 1907 Cluj
18:00 UTC Petrolul Ploiesti vs Arges Pitesti — model 43% / 33% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.03 · 4.17. Evenly matched
18:00 UTC Universitatea Cluj vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — model 63% / 23% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.59 · 4.35 · 7.14. One-sided: Universitatea Cluj
18:00 UTC Rapid vs FC Botosani — model 56% / 25% / 19%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.79 · 4.00 · 5.26. Edge: Rapid
18:00 UTC Oțelul vs Uta Arad — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33. Evenly matched
18:00 UTC Corvinul Hunedoara vs Farul Constanta — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–9 November: the model called the result of 1 of 8 matches. Across all 116 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 49% of results.

Uta Arad 0–1 Petrolul Ploiesti — the model said 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Arges Pitesti 2–1 Dinamo Bucuresti — the model said 22% / 32% / 46%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Csikszereda 0–0 Universitatea Cluj — the model said 23% / 26% / 51%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Farul Constanta 1–1 Rapid — the model said 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
FCSB 0–1 Corvinul Hunedoara — the model said 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–1 FC Voluntari — the model said 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
CFR 1907 Cluj 0–0 Universitatea Craiova — the model said 25% / 28% / 47%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
FC Botosani 1–1 Oțelul — the model said 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

Romanian Liga I so far

Top of the table

1. Universitatea Craiova — 33 pts from 15 (10W 3D 2L, goals 34–10)
2. Dinamo Bucuresti — 33 pts from 15 (10W 3D 2L, goals 32–11)
3. Rapid — 31 pts from 15 (9W 4D 2L, goals 24–14)
4. Petrolul Ploiesti — 27 pts from 15 (8W 3D 4L, goals 20–18)
5. Universitatea Cluj — 26 pts from 15 (8W 2D 5L, goals 26–20)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 120 matches left: Universitatea Craiova 65.1%, Dinamo Bucuresti 26.5%, Rapid 7.1%.

Leading scorers: S. Elisor (Universitatea Craiova) 9 goals, J. Lukić (Universitatea Cluj) 7 goals, M. Ahlinvi (Farul Constanta) 7 goals.