PSV Eindhoven
vs
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PSV Eindhoven 3–1 GO Ahead Eagles
The model makes it 77% PSV Eindhoven, 14% draw, 9% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 1.30, 7.14 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 3.60, GO Ahead Eagles 1.05.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: PSV Eindhoven are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. PSV Eindhoven's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and GO Ahead Eagles's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- PSV Eindhoven are top on 26 points from 12 games; GO Ahead Eagles are 8th on 17 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-2 win away to Cambuur.
- GO Ahead Eagles have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Excelsior.
- Last 6 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended GO Ahead Eagles 1–4 PSV Eindhoven.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PSV Eindhoven vs GO Ahead Eagles
Has the model earned this number?
PSV Eindhoven at 77%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs GO Ahead Eagles
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie
- W5-2away to Cambuur8 November 2026
- W7-0Willem II31 October 2026
- D1-1Feyenoord25 October 2026
- L1-2away to ADO Den Haag17 October 2026
- W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie
- W1-0away to Excelsior7 November 2026
- L0-4away to Cambuur31 October 2026
- W3-2Telstar23 October 2026
- L1-4away to PEC Zwolle18 October 2026
- D3-3Sparta Rotterdam10 October 2026
What these results say
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GO Ahead Eagles had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 26 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
PSV Eindhoven
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 53% today
GO Ahead Eagles
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs GO Ahead Eagles
- 10 May 2026GO Ahead Eagles 1–4 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 18 October 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 3 August 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–1 GO Ahead EaglesSuper Cup
- 1 March 2025GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 26 February 2025PSV Eindhoven 1–2 GO Ahead EaglesKNVB Beker
- 1 September 2024PSV Eindhoven 3–0 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and GO Ahead Eagles
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- S. Mijnans92
- G. Til71
GO Ahead Eagles
GoalsAssists
- S. Tengstedt92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PSV Eindhoven a 53% chance of the title and GO Ahead Eagles 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.60 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven against 1.05 for GO Ahead Eagles. PSV Eindhoven's attack/defence rating is 1.48/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.31 for GO Ahead Eagles.
How the model reaches 77% for PSV Eindhoven to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for PSV Eindhoven to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, PSV Eindhoven's ratings add 17 points and GO Ahead Eagles's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 77%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- PSV Eindhoven's ratings62%+17
- GO Ahead Eagles's ratings77%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
PSV Eindhoven at home · GO Ahead Eagles away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PSV EindhovenGO Ahead Eagles
PSV Eindhoven are 1st after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 5th so far); GO Ahead Eagles are 8th after 12 (between 2nd and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: PSV Eindhoven 12, GO Ahead Eagles 12.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); GO Ahead Eagles have let in 8 there.
GO Ahead Eagles score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); PSV Eindhoven have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
PSV Eindhoven
- at AZ Alkmaar5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 47%
- vs Atletico Madrid9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
- vs Telstar13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 74%
GO Ahead Eagles
- vs Twente6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 21%
- at Heerenveen12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 21%
- vs Ajax20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 22%
- at Groningen10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.