Eredivisie predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 5 matches

15:30 UTC NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven — model 22% / 21% / 57%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.55 · 4.76 · 1.75. One-sided: PSV Eindhoven
17:45 UTC Utrecht vs Cambuur — model 40% / 23% / 37%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 4.35 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
17:45 UTC Feyenoord vs Excelsior — model 74% / 16% / 10%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.35 · 6.25 · 10.00. One-sided: Feyenoord
20:00 UTC Groningen vs Heerenveen — model 37% / 25% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.70 · 4.00 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
20:00 UTC Telstar vs PEC Zwolle — model 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.00 · 4.35. Edge: Telstar

Sunday 22 November — 4 matches

11:15 UTC Twente vs Willem II — model 87% / 9% / 4%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.15 · 11.11 · 25.00. One-sided: Twente
13:30 UTC Ajax vs ADO Den Haag — model 67% / 20% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.49 · 5.00 · 7.69. One-sided: Ajax
13:30 UTC Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar — model 25% / 24% / 51%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.00 · 4.17 · 1.96. One-sided: AZ Alkmaar
15:45 UTC GO Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard — model 40% / 26% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.85 · 2.94. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 1 match

19:00 UTC Groningen vs Willem II — model 76% / 14% / 10%, most likely 3-1, fair odds 1.32 · 7.14 · 10.00. One-sided: Groningen

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

15:30 UTC Excelsior vs Telstar — model 34% / 26% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.85 · 2.50. Edge: Telstar
17:45 UTC PSV Eindhoven vs GO Ahead Eagles — model 77% / 14% / 9%, most likely 3-1, fair odds 1.30 · 7.14 · 11.11. One-sided: PSV Eindhoven
20:00 UTC Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam — model 56% / 21% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.76 · 4.35. Edge: Cambuur

Sunday 29 November — 5 matches

11:15 UTC ADO Den Haag vs Utrecht — model 42% / 25% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 4.00 · 3.03. Evenly matched
13:30 UTC Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen — model 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.70 · 2.56. Edge: Heerenveen
13:30 UTC Feyenoord vs Ajax — model 42% / 25% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 4.00 · 3.03. Evenly matched
15:45 UTC PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar — model 22% / 26% / 52%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.55 · 3.85 · 1.92. One-sided: AZ Alkmaar
19:00 UTC NEC Nijmegen vs Twente — model 25% / 26% / 49%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.00 · 3.85 · 2.04. One-sided: Twente

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 9 matches. Across all 108 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 50% of results.

Willem II 1–1 PEC Zwolle — the model said 28% / 25% / 47%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Fortuna Sittard 2–2 Telstar — the model said 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
ADO Den Haag 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam — the model said 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Excelsior 0–1 GO Ahead Eagles — the model said 38% / 24% / 38%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Heerenveen 5–3 Feyenoord — the model said 28% / 26% / 46%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Twente 2–2 Ajax — the model said 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Cambuur 2–5 PSV Eindhoven — the model said 22% / 20% / 58%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
AZ Alkmaar 4–3 Groningen — the model said 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Utrecht 2–3 NEC Nijmegen — the model said 39% / 25% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

Eredivisie so far

Top of the table

1. PSV Eindhoven — 26 pts from 12 (8W 2D 2L, goals 40–15)
2. Feyenoord — 25 pts from 12 (7W 4D 1L, goals 36–17)
3. Ajax — 25 pts from 12 (7W 4D 1L, goals 32–15)
4. Twente — 24 pts from 12 (7W 3D 2L, goals 30–12)
5. AZ Alkmaar — 23 pts from 12 (7W 2D 3L, goals 24–16)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 198 matches left: PSV Eindhoven 53%, Twente 15.6%, Feyenoord 15.3%.

Leading scorers: S. Tengstedt (GO Ahead Eagles) 9 goals, S. Mijnans (PSV Eindhoven) 9 goals, B. Willumsson (Groningen) 9 goals.