Le Havre
vs
Strasbourg
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Le Havre 1–2 Strasbourg
The model makes it 30% Le Havre, 24% draw, 46% Strasbourg — fair odds of 3.33, 4.17 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Le Havre 1.50, Strasbourg 1.99.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Strasbourg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Le Havre's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Strasbourg's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Le Havre are bottom on 2 points from 10 games; Strasbourg are 13th on 10 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Le Havre have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Lorient.
- Strasbourg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Toulouse.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Le Havre 2–1 Strasbourg.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Le Havre vs Strasbourg
Has the model earned this number?
Strasbourg at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Le Havre vs Strasbourg
Le Havre
Ligue 1
- L0-2Lorient8 November 2026
- L1-5Paris Saint Germain30 October 2026
- L3-4away to Marseille25 October 2026
- L1-3Auxerre18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026
Strasbourg
Ligue 1
- L1-3away to Toulouse6 November 2026
- W5-1Auxerre1 November 2026
- L0-3away to Rennes25 October 2026
- L1-3Paris Saint Germain17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026
What these results say
- Le Havre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Strasbourg had three goals or more.
- Strasbourg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Le Havre
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 68% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Strasbourg
- 8 February 2026Le Havre 2–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 14 September 2025Strasbourg 1–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 17 May 2025Strasbourg 2–3 Le HavreLigue 1
- 15 December 2024Le Havre 0–3 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 4 May 2024Le Havre 3–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 7 February 2024Strasbourg 3–1 Le HavreCoupe de France
Leading scorers: Le Havre and Strasbourg
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja40
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Strasbourg the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Le Havre against 1.99 for Strasbourg. Le Havre's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.25 for Strasbourg.
How the model reaches 46% for Strasbourg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Strasbourg to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Le Havre's ratings add 6 points and Strasbourg's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Le Havre's ratings38%+6
- Strasbourg's ratings46%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Le Havre at home · Strasbourg away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Le HavreStrasbourg
Le Havre are 18th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 14th and 18th so far); Strasbourg are 13th after 10 (between 4th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Le Havre 10, Strasbourg 10.
Le Havre score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Strasbourg have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Le Havre
- at Lens5 Dec · Ligue 1win 15%
- vs Le Mans12 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Paris FC2 Jan · Ligue 1win 12%
- at Nice16 Jan · Ligue 1win 21%
Strasbourg
- vs Lorient5 Dec · Ligue 1win 42%
- at Angers12 Dec · Ligue 1win 49%
- at Lille3 Jan · Ligue 1win 19%
- vs Le Mans16 Jan · Ligue 1win 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.