Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Queen's Park vs Livingston Championship prediction

The City Stadium, Glasgow

Our model says: Queen's Park 0–1 Livingston

The model makes it 21% Queen's Park, 28% draw, 51% Livingston — fair odds of 4.76, 3.57 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).

Expected goals: Queen's Park 0.81, Livingston 1.56.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Livingston are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Queen's Park's rating is built from 51 Scottish Championship matches and Livingston's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Queen's Park are bottom on 7 points from 15 games; Livingston are 5th on 24 points from 15 games — Championship.
  • Queen's Park have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Stenhousemuir.
  • Livingston are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Morton.
  • Last 6 meetings: Livingston 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Livingston 2–0 Queen's Park.

More Scottish Championship predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Queen's Park vs Livingston

45%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Queen's Park win Draw Livingston win
  1. 0–114%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 0–211%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 1–29%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 0–36%

Scores read Queen's Park first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Livingston at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Queen's Park vs Livingston

Queen's Park

Championship

  • L0-2away to Stenhousemuir14 November 2026
  • L0-1Partick7 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Ayr Utd31 October 2026
  • L0-1Dunfermline24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Morton17 October 2026

Livingston

Championship

  • W2-0Morton14 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Inverness CT7 November 2026
  • W3-0away to Stenhousemuir30 October 2026
  • W1-0Arbroath24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Dunfermline17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Queen's Park did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Queen's Park conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Queen's Park failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Livingston went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Livingston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Livingston kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Queen's Park152112825-177
5Livingston157352112+924

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Queen's Park

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 94% today

Win 91%
Draw 94%
Defeat 95%

Livingston

Chance to finish in the top four · 76% today

Win 80%
Draw 73%
Defeat 67%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Queen's Park vs Livingston

  • 1 August 2026Livingston 2–0 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 5 April 2025Livingston 3–0 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 30 March 2025Queen's Park 0–5 LivingstonChallenge Cup
  • 4 January 2025Queen's Park 2–0 LivingstonChampionship
  • 2 November 2024Livingston 1–1 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 9 August 2024Queen's Park 1–1 LivingstonChampionship

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Queen's Park a 0% chance of the title and Livingston 13.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Queen's Park v Livingston has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 24% / 26% / 50% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 21% / 28% / 51%: the biggest move is Queen's Park's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Queen's Park win21%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. Livingston win51%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Queen's Park Livingston
0.3 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
2.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.67
0.81 Model expected goals (this match) 1.56

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Livingston the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Queen's Park against 1.56 for Livingston. Queen's Park's attack/defence rating is 0.3/2.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.67 for Livingston.

Queen's Park carry a model rating of 5.77 against 6.24 for Livingston.

How the model reaches 51% for Livingston to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Livingston to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Queen's Park's ratings add 11 points and Livingston's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 51%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. Queen's Park's ratings39%+11
  5. Livingston's ratings51%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Queen's ParkLivingston
15Matches15
2W 1D 12LRecord7W 3D 5L
8 0.5 per gameGoals scored21 1.4 per game
25 1.7 per gameGoals conceded12 0.8 per game
1 of 15Clean sheets7 of 15
10 of 15Failed to score4 of 15
–Penalties scored2 of 2
38 2.5 per gameYellow cards32 2.1 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 1×Usual shape4-3-3 1×

Queen's Park at home · Livingston away

7Played7
2W 0D 5LRecord3W 2D 2L
5–10Goals for – against10–5
0 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Queen's Park 15, Livingston 15.

Queen's Park scored 021212
Livingston conceded 312321
Livingston scored 226416
Queen's Park conceded 445543

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Queen's Park

  • vs Arbroath5 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
  • at Inverness CT12 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
  • vs Raith Rovers18 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
  • at Partick26 Dec · Championshipwin 11%
  • vs Ayr Utd2 Jan · Championshipwin 34%

Livingston

  • vs Raith Rovers4 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
  • at Ayr Utd12 Dec · Championshipwin 43%
  • vs Dunfermline19 Dec · Championshipwin 41%
  • vs Stenhousemuir26 Dec · Championshipwin 54%
  • at Morton2 Jan · Championshipwin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.