Scottish Championship predictions

Friday 20 November — 1 match

• 19:30 UTC Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd — model 54% / 23% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.35 · 4.35. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

• 15:00 UTC Raith Rovers vs Partick — model 37% / 29% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.45 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
• 15:00 UTC Dunfermline vs Morton — model 64% / 21% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.56 · 4.76 · 6.67. One-sided: Dunfermline
• 15:00 UTC Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
• 15:00 UTC Queen's Park vs Livingston — model 21% / 28% / 51%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.76 · 3.57 · 1.96. One-sided: Livingston

Last round: the model's hits and misses

14 November: the model called the result of 3 of 4 matches. Across all 34 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 44% of results.

• Ayr Utd 3–1 Raith Rovers — the model said 30% / 27% / 43%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Livingston 2–0 Morton — the model said 64% / 20% / 16%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Partick 3–2 Inverness CT — the model said 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Stenhousemuir 2–0 Queen's Park — the model said 56% / 25% / 19%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

Scottish Championship so far

Top of the table

• 1. Partick — 31 pts from 15 (9W 4D 2L, goals 21–9)
• 2. Stenhousemuir — 26 pts from 15 (8W 2D 5L, goals 18–16)
• 3. Raith Rovers — 25 pts from 15 (7W 4D 4L, goals 21–12)
• 4. Dunfermline — 25 pts from 14 (6W 7D 1L, goals 15–7)
• 5. Livingston — 24 pts from 15 (7W 3D 5L, goals 21–12)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 107 matches left: Partick 50.7%, Dunfermline 21.3%, Livingston 13.9%.