Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd Championship prediction

Tulloch Caledonian Stadium, Inverness

Our model says: Inverness CT 2–1 Ayr Utd

The model makes it 54% Inverness CT, 23% draw, 23% Ayr Utd — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Inverness CT 2.27, Ayr Utd 1.33.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Inverness CT's rating is built from 15 Scottish Championship matches and Ayr Utd's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Inverness CT are 6th on 20 points from 15 games; Ayr Utd are 7th on 18 points from 14 games — Championship.
  • Inverness CT are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Partick.
  • Ayr Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Raith Rovers.
  • Last 6 meetings: Inverness CT 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 September 2026, ended Ayr Utd 1–3 Inverness CT.

More Scottish Championship predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd

66%
Both teams to score
70%
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Inverness CT win Draw Ayr Utd win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 3–17%
  4. 2–07%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Inverness CT first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Inverness CT at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd

Inverness CT

Championship

  • L2-3away to Partick14 November 2026
  • D1-1Livingston7 November 2026
  • L1-5away to Dunfermline31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Raith Rovers24 October 2026
  • W2-0Arbroath17 October 2026

Ayr Utd

Championship

  • W3-1Raith Rovers14 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Arbroath7 November 2026
  • W3-2Queen's Park31 October 2026
  • L0-1Partick16 October 2026
  • D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Inverness CT scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ayr Utd conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ayr Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ayr Utd.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Inverness CT155552020020
7Ayr Utd145361719-218

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Inverness CT

Chance to finish in the top four · 28% today

Win 31%
Draw 24%
Defeat 19%

Ayr Utd

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 17% today

Win 11%
Draw 16%
Defeat 19%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd

  • 12 September 2026Ayr Utd 1–3 Inverness CTChampionship
  • 24 February 2026Ayr Utd 1–2 Inverness CTChallenge Cup
  • 16 March 2024Inverness CT 1–2 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 6 January 2024Ayr Utd 1–3 Inverness CTChampionship
  • 11 November 2023Inverness CT 3–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 12 August 2023Ayr Utd 1–0 Inverness CTChampionship

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Inverness CT a 1.2% chance of the title and Ayr Utd 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Inverness CT v Ayr Utd has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 52% / 24% / 24% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 54% / 23% / 23%: the biggest move is Inverness CT's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Inverness CT win54%▲ +2
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. Ayr Utd win23%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Inverness CT Ayr Utd
0.53 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.44
2.51 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.63
2.27 Model expected goals (this match) 1.33

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Inverness CT the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Inverness CT against 1.33 for Ayr Utd. Inverness CT's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.63 for Ayr Utd.

Inverness CT carry a model rating of 6.08 against 5.96 for Ayr Utd. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 54% for Inverness CT to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Inverness CT to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Inverness CT's ratings add 4 points and Ayr Utd's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 54%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level47%+3
  4. Inverness CT's ratings51%+4
  5. Ayr Utd's ratings54%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Inverness CTAyr Utd
15Matches14
5W 5D 5LRecord5W 3D 6L
20 1.3 per gameGoals scored17 1.2 per game
20 1.3 per gameGoals conceded19 1.4 per game
6 of 15Clean sheets2 of 14
3 of 15Failed to score4 of 14
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 3
26 1.7 per gameYellow cards24 1.7 per game
0Red cards2
4-2-3-1 1×Usual shape3-4-3 1×

Inverness CT at home · Ayr Utd away

7Played6
3W 3D 1LRecord2W 1D 3L
8–4Goals for – against6–9
4 of 7Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Inverness CT 15, Ayr Utd 14.

Inverness CT scored 434234
Ayr Utd conceded 452323
Ayr Utd scored 145133
Inverness CT conceded 153443

Ayr Utd score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Inverness CT have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Inverness CT

  • at Morton5 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
  • vs Queen's Park12 Dec · Championshipwin 62%
  • at Stenhousemuir19 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
  • at Arbroath23 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
  • vs Dunfermline2 Jan · Championshipwin 35%

Ayr Utd

  • at Morton1 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
  • at Stenhousemuir5 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
  • vs Livingston12 Dec · Championshipwin 30%
  • at Partick19 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
  • vs Morton23 Dec · Championshipwin 51%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.