Raith Rovers
vs
Partick
Championship prediction
Our model says: Raith Rovers 1–0 Partick
The model makes it 37% Raith Rovers, 29% draw, 34% Partick — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Raith Rovers 1.27, Partick 1.18.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Raith Rovers and Partick are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Raith Rovers's rating is built from 51 Scottish Championship matches and Partick's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Raith Rovers are 3rd on 25 points from 15 games; Partick are top on 31 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Raith Rovers have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Ayr Utd.
- Partick have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Inverness CT.
- Last 6 meetings: Partick 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Partick 0–0 Raith Rovers.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Raith Rovers vs Partick
Has the model earned this number?
Raith Rovers at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Raith Rovers vs Partick
Raith Rovers
Championship
- L1-3away to Ayr Utd14 November 2026
- D0-0Dunfermline6 November 2026
- W4-0away to Arbroath31 October 2026
- L0-2Inverness CT24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026
Partick
Championship
- W3-2Inverness CT14 November 2026
- W1-0away to Queen's Park7 November 2026
- L2-3Morton31 October 2026
- W3-0Stenhousemuir24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dunfermline20 October 2026
What these results say
- Raith Rovers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Partick scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 25 |
| 1 | Partick | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Raith Rovers
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
Partick
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 51% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Raith Rovers vs Partick
- 19 September 2026Partick 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 24 March 2026Raith Rovers 0–2 PartickChampionship
- 20 December 2025Partick 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 25 October 2025Raith Rovers 2–0 PartickChampionship
- 30 August 2025Partick 3–2 Raith RoversChampionship
- 21 March 2025Partick 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Partick (first, with Raith Rovers third), while our numbers lean to Raith Rovers. Raith Rovers rate 0.48 in attack and 1.96 in defence, Partick 0.50 and 1.63 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Raith Rovers a 8.8% chance of the title and Partick 50.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Raith Rovers v Partick has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Raith Rovers's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Raith Rovers win37%▼ −3
- Draw29%=
- Partick win34%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raith Rovers the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Raith Rovers against 1.18 for Partick. Raith Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.63 for Partick.
How the model reaches 37% for Raith Rovers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Raith Rovers to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Raith Rovers's ratings take away 3 points and Partick's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Raith Rovers's ratings40%−3
- Partick's ratings37%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Raith Rovers at home · Partick away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Raith Rovers 15, Partick 15.
Raith Rovers score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Partick have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Raith Rovers
- at Livingston4 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Morton12 Dec · Championshipwin 61%
- at Queen's Park18 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
- at Dunfermline26 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Arbroath2 Jan · Championshipwin 58%
Partick
- vs Dunfermline5 Dec · Championshipwin 42%
- at Arbroath11 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
- vs Ayr Utd19 Dec · Championshipwin 61%
- vs Queen's Park26 Dec · Championshipwin 67%
- at Stenhousemuir2 Jan · Championshipwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.