Rangers
vs
Falkirk
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Rangers 2–1 Falkirk
The model makes it 59% Rangers, 22% draw, 19% Falkirk — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Rangers 2.27, Falkirk 1.07.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Rangers: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Rangers's rating is built from 50 Scottish Premiership matches and Falkirk's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 543 matches.
Key facts
- Rangers are 2nd on 27 points from 12 games; Falkirk are 3rd on 21 points from 13 games — Premiership.
- Rangers are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to St Mirren.
- Falkirk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 5-2 win away to Heart of Midlothian.
- Last 6 meetings: Rangers 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Falkirk 1–2 Rangers.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rangers vs Falkirk
Has the model earned this number?
Rangers at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rangers vs Falkirk
Rangers
Premiership
- W2-0away to St Mirren7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Heart of Midlothian28 October 2026
- W4-0St Johnstone24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dundee17 October 2026
- W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026
Falkirk
Premiership
- W5-2away to Heart of Midlothian8 November 2026
- W2-0Celtic1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Aberdeen28 October 2026
- W3-0Kilmarnock24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian17 October 2026
What these results say
- Rangers went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rangers had three goals or more.
- Falkirk won every one of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rangers | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 27 |
| 3 | Falkirk | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rangers
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 39% today
Falkirk
Chance to finish in the top six · 89% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Rangers vs Falkirk
- 2 September 2026Falkirk 1–2 RangersPremiership
- 16 May 2026Falkirk 2–5 RangersPremiership
- 12 April 2026Falkirk 3–6 RangersPremiership
- 30 November 2025Rangers 0–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 5 October 2025Falkirk 1–1 RangersPremiership
- 29 November 2020Falkirk 0–4 RangersLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Rangers and Falkirk
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi63
- K. Kelsy40
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rangers a 38.8% chance of the title and Falkirk 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rangers the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Rangers against 1.07 for Falkirk. Rangers's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.44 for Falkirk.
How the model reaches 59% for Rangers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rangers to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Rangers's ratings add 8 points and Falkirk's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Rangers's ratings52%+8
- Falkirk's ratings59%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rangers at home · Falkirk away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
RangersFalkirk
Rangers are 2nd after 12 Premiership matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Falkirk are 3rd after 13 (between 3rd and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Rangers 12, Falkirk 13.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rangers
- vs Dundee United2 Dec · Premiershipwin 66%
- at Hibernian7 Dec · Premiershipwin 46%
- at St Johnstone13 Dec · Premiershipwin 53%
Falkirk
- vs Motherwell2 Dec · Premiershipwin 49%
- at Dundee5 Dec · Premiershipwin 36%
- vs Aberdeen12 Dec · Premiershipwin 57%
- at St Mirren19 Dec · Premiershipwin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.