Scottish Premiership predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 6 matches

15:00 UTC Celtic vs St Mirren — model 74% / 17% / 9%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.35 · 5.88 · 11.11. One-sided: Celtic
15:00 UTC Hibernian vs Dundee United — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
15:00 UTC Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched
15:00 UTC Falkirk vs St Johnstone — model 53% / 24% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.17 · 4.35. Edge: Falkirk
17:45 UTC Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian — model 37% / 25% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.70 · 4.00 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
20:00 UTC Motherwell vs Rangers — model 25% / 26% / 49%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.00 · 3.85 · 2.04. One-sided: Rangers

Tuesday 24 November — 2 matches

19:45 UTC Hibernian vs Dundee — model 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.57. Evenly matched
20:00 UTC Rangers vs Aberdeen — model 71% / 18% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.41 · 5.56 · 9.09. One-sided: Rangers

Saturday 28 November — 5 matches

15:00 UTC St Mirren vs Kilmarnock — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03. Evenly matched
15:00 UTC Aberdeen vs Dundee — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
15:00 UTC Rangers vs Falkirk — model 59% / 22% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 4.55 · 5.26. Edge: Rangers
15:00 UTC Dundee United vs St Johnstone — model 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.57. Evenly matched
17:45 UTC Motherwell vs Hibernian — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Sunday 29 November — 1 match

15:00 UTC Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic — model 31% / 24% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 4.17 · 2.22. Edge: Celtic

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 6 matches, 2 of them to the exact score. Across all 75 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 45% of results.

Dundee United 1–1 Motherwell — the model said 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
St Johnstone 2–1 Dundee — the model said 39% / 27% / 34%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
Aberdeen 0–4 Hibernian — the model said 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
St Mirren 0–2 Rangers — the model said 18% / 24% / 58%, most likely 0-2: exact scoreline.
Heart of Midlothian 2–5 Falkirk — the model said 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Celtic 1–0 Kilmarnock — the model said 79% / 13% / 8%, most likely 3-0: result correct.

Scottish Premiership so far

Top of the table

1. Celtic — 31 pts from 13 (10W 1D 2L, goals 28–10)
2. Rangers — 27 pts from 12 (8W 3D 1L, goals 21–9)
3. Falkirk — 21 pts from 13 (6W 3D 4L, goals 20–14)
4. Heart of Midlothian — 20 pts from 12 (6W 2D 4L, goals 26–22)
5. Dundee — 17 pts from 12 (5W 2D 5L, goals 18–15)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 123 matches left: Celtic 59.3%, Rangers 38.8%, Heart of Midlothian 1.4%.

Leading scorers: C. Durán (Celtic) 7 goals, J. Murrell (Falkirk) 7 goals, B. Nygren (Celtic) 6 goals.