Dundee United
vs
St Johnstone
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Dundee United 2–1 St Johnstone
The model makes it 46% Dundee United, 26% draw, 28% St Johnstone — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dundee United 1.74, St Johnstone 1.26.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dundee United are 6th on 17 points from 12 games; St Johnstone are 7th on 17 points from 13 games — Premiership.
- Dundee United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Motherwell.
- St Johnstone are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Dundee.
- Last 6 meetings: Dundee United 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 October 2026, ended St Johnstone 1–1 Dundee United.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dundee United vs St Johnstone
Has the model earned this number?
Dundee United at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dundee United vs St Johnstone
Dundee United
Premiership
- D1-1Motherwell7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Celtic28 October 2026
- W3-2Aberdeen24 October 2026
- D1-1away to St Johnstone17 October 2026
- W1-0Hibernian10 October 2026
St Johnstone
Premiership
- W2-1Dundee7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Kilmarnock31 October 2026
- D2-2Motherwell28 October 2026
- L0-4away to Rangers24 October 2026
- D1-1Dundee United17 October 2026
What these results say
- Dundee United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dundee United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundee United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dundee United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dundee United
Chance to finish in the top six
St Johnstone
Chance to finish in the top six
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dundee United vs St Johnstone
- 17 October 2026St Johnstone 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 12 April 2025Dundee United 1–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 26 December 2024St Johnstone 1–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 24 August 2024Dundee United 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 6 May 2023St Johnstone 1–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 18 February 2023Dundee United 1–2 St JohnstonePremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee United and St Johnstone
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- J. Randall33
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dundee United a 0.1% chance of the title and St Johnstone 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundee United the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Dundee United against 1.26 for St Johnstone. Dundee United's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.66 for St Johnstone.
How the model reaches 46% for Dundee United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dundee United to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Dundee United's ratings add 1 point and St Johnstone's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Dundee United's ratings45%+1
- St Johnstone's ratings46%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dundee United at home · St Johnstone away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Dundee UnitedSt Johnstone
Dundee United are 6th after 12 Premiership matches (between 1st and 11th so far); St Johnstone are 7th after 13 (between 2nd and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Dundee United 12, St Johnstone 13.
Dundee United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); St Johnstone have let in 3 there.
St Johnstone score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Dundee United have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dundee United
- at Rangers2 Dec · Premiershipwin 14%
- at Aberdeen5 Dec · Premiershipwin 36%
- vs St Mirren12 Dec · Premiershipwin 53%
St Johnstone
- vs St Mirren2 Dec · Premiershipwin 51%
- at Celtic5 Dec · Premiershipwin 12%
- vs Rangers13 Dec · Premiershipwin 23%
- at Hibernian19 Dec · Premiershipwin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.