11 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Ružomberok vs Žilina Super Liga prediction & result

Štadión pod Čebraťom, Ruzomberok
Referee: Lukas Dzivjak, Slovakia
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Ružomberok 2-2 Žilina.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Ružomberok, 26% draw, 49% Žilina — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Žilina at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ružomberok4%Draw92%Žilina4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽M. Fasko (pen)
16'
⚽A. Narimanidzeassist: F. Bzdyl
25'
A. Narimanidze
⚽A. Selecky (pen)
27'
J. Hladik
29'
D. Kostl
34'
35'
K. Bari
⚽D. Kostkaassist: M. Bacik
41'
46'
🔁M. Faskoout: K. Bilalovic
🔁V. Hranosout: M. Chobot
69'
🔁F. Soucekout: T. Buchvaldek
69'
70'
🔁P. Ilkoout: A. Florea
70'
🔁K. Bariout: M. Traore
🔁J. Hladikout: M. Boda
78'
🔁M. Bacikout: A. Tucny
78'
🔁A. Mojzisout: M. Kelemen
85'
90'
🔁F. Bzdylout: D. Homet Ruiz
D. Kostka
90+1'
90+1'
J. Albin
90+2'
🔁M. Kacerout: X. Adang

Match stats — Ružomberok vs Žilina

54%Possession46%
21Shots9
5On target3
4Corners2
2.37xG1.56

Goals against chances

Ružomberok2 from 2.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
Žilina2 from 1.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ružomberok 3-4-3
  • 1I. KrajcirikG
  • 16D. KostlD
  • 5T. MarusinD
  • 2A. MojzisD
  • 31D. KostkaM
  • 10F. SoucekM
  • 4O. LuteranM
  • 28A. SeleckyM
  • 15M. BacikF
  • 14J. HladikF
  • 19V. HranosF
Substitutes
  • 34D. HuskaG
  • 23D. PrekopD
  • 25D. GrgicM
  • 20M. ChobotM
  • 22T. BuchvaldekM
  • 30M. BodaF
  • 17A. TucnyM
  • 26M. KelemenF
  • 24P. Jevos
Coach: Jaroslav Kostl
Žilina 3-4-3
  • 31D. SiposG
  • 25J. AlbinD
  • 28A. NarimanidzeD
  • 17J. MinarikD
  • 21T. HranicaM
  • 66M. KacerM
  • 11F. BzdylM
  • 20K. BariM
  • 23M. FaskoF
  • 16P. IlkoF
  • 95M. RoginicF
Substitutes
  • 26T. TarcsiG
  • 19M. TraoreD
  • 99K. BilalovicF
  • 10A. FloreaM
  • 6X. AdangM
  • 90D. Homet RuizF
  • 9P. BalejaF
Coach: Vladimir Vesely

Form going into Ružomberok vs Žilina

Ružomberok

No earlier matches on record this season.

Žilina

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to GKS Katowice30 July 2026
  • W2-1GKS Katowice23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Slovakia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Ružomberok143381329-1612
3Žilina148423727+1028

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ružomberok vs Žilina

  • 6 December 2025Žilina 1–2 RužomberokSuper Liga
  • 31 August 2025Ružomberok 3–3 ŽilinaSuper Liga
  • 3 November 2024Ružomberok 1–0 ŽilinaSuper Liga
  • 29 October 2024Žilina 3–1 RužomberokSuper Liga
  • 11 May 2024Ružomberok 1–1 ŽilinaSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Ružomberok and Žilina

Ružomberok

No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Žilina

GoalsAssists

  • M. Faško61
  • T. Hranica31
  • D. Homet Ruiz30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ružomberok and Žilina drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Žilina at 49% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Fasko (penalty) 11' for Žilina, A. Narimanidze 16' for Žilina, A. Selecky (penalty) 27' for Ružomberok, D. Kostka 41' for Ružomberok. Sent off: A. Narimanidze (Žilina) 25'. On expected goals it finished 2.37–1.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ružomberok a 78.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 69.8% after a win, 77.4% after a draw, 83.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 77.4%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

For Žilina the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 83.2% going in: 87.6% after a win, 81.3% after a draw, 76.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 81.3%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ružomberok v Žilina has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 25% / 26% / 49%: the biggest move is Žilina's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Ružomberok win25%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Žilina win49%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.