11 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, Mielec
Referee: P. Pazdecki
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Stal Mielec 2-1 Warta Poznań.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Stal Mielec, 24% draw, 44% Warta Poznań — fair odds of 3.13, 4.17 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Warta Poznań at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stal Mielec94%Draw6%Warta Poznań0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Cebula
6'
⚽M. Cebulaassist: S. Oure
11'
46'
🔁A. Wolczekout: P. Kusztal
46'
🔁B. Lelitoout: K. Lepczynski
57'
🔁M. Stanekout: M. Smoczynski
57'
🔁F. Rejczykout: S. Steblecki
🔁E. Ziobronout: M. Wyparlo
62'
🔁S. Oureout: T. Gmur
62'
70'
🔁K. Szymanekout: K. Wybieralski
72'
⚽J. Apolinarskiassist: O. Azatsky
🔁M. Cebulaout: M. Domanski
75'
🔁K. Cybulskiout: P. Kruszelnicki
75'
🔁P. Wlazloout: K. Koscielny
81'
•M. Domanski
89'

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Stal Mielec145451927-819
9Warta Poznań146172020019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań

  • 22 April 2024Warta Poznań 5–2 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
  • 23 October 2023Stal Mielec 0–1 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
  • 27 May 2023Stal Mielec 1–0 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
  • 11 November 2022Warta Poznań 1–1 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
  • 16 April 2022Stal Mielec 0–1 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa

The result against the call

Stal Mielec beat Warta Poznań 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Warta Poznań at 44% and given a win for Stal Mielec 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Cebula 6' for Stal Mielec, M. Cebula 11' for Stal Mielec, J. Apolinarski 72' for Warta Poznań.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stal Mielec a 53.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 45.5% after a win, 55.0% after a draw, 58.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.5%, 8.3 points lower than before the match.

For Warta Poznań the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 53.0% going in: 59.2% after a win, 51.6% after a draw, 45.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.4%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stal Mielec v Warta Poznań has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 32% / 24% / 44%: the biggest move is Warta Poznań's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Stal Mielec win32%▼ −1
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Warta Poznań win44%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.