San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 0-2 Boca Juniors.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% San Lorenzo, 30% draw, 32% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
San Lorenzo at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 32E. HerreraD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 16G. CorujoD
- 19E. AmorD
- 6M. De RitisD
- 9A. CuelloM
- 24N. TripichioM
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 38F. FariasM
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 30N. AriasD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 3T. Rodriguez PaganoD
- 15M. CardilloM
- 13J. RattalinoM
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 10F. GulliM
- 18D. HerazoF
- 1A. MonteroG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 25S. AscacibarM
- 5L. ParedesM
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 19L. FloresF
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 20A. VelascoF
- 12L. BreyG
- 4J. FigalD
- 26M. PellegrinoD
- 24D. GorositoD
- 8T. BelmonteM
- 27M. BraidaM
- 7Carlos PalaciosF
- 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
- 11Angel RomeroF
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
- W1-0Union Santa Fe15 August 2026
Boca Juniors
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
- W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Racing Club24 August 2026
- D1-1away to Platense16 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 19 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors
- 11 March 2026Boca Juniors 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 August 2024Boca Juniors 3–2 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2024Boca Juniors 2–1 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 8 November 2023San Lorenzo 1–1 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 12 April 2023San Lorenzo 1–0 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- R. Auzmendi72
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Boca Juniors won 2–0 at San Lorenzo. The model had leaned towards a win for San Lorenzo at 38% and given a win for Boca Juniors 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: L. Lozano 57' for Boca Juniors, Miguel Merentiel 72' for Boca Juniors. Sent off: Manuel Insaurralde (San Lorenzo) 31'. On expected goals it finished 0.21–2.15.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.